Australia’s Commercial Real Estate Mid-Year Outlook: A Recovery Under Pressure

Brisbane

Australia’s commercial real estate market enters the second half of 2026 facing renewed uncertainty. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent tightening cycle has reversed the easing that briefly improved sentiment in late 2025, placing fresh pressure on valuations and transaction activity just as market conditions appeared to be stabilising. Performance has become increasingly uneven. Sectors supported by resilient fundamentals are relatively stable, whilst assets facing refinancing risk or weaker demand remain under stress.

Join MSCI Private Assets for an in-person discussion on what the latest data tells us about market performance, capital flows and valuations, and what these trends may indicate for the second half of the year. 

What we’ll discuss: 

• How has the RBA’s policy reversal extended the repricing cycle, and where do transaction volumes and pricing gaps stand today? 

• Unlisted funds delivered three consecutive quarters of positive capital growth through Q1 2026. Has the recovery remained on track, or has the higher-rate environment created new headwinds?

• Office values remain approximately 27% below their peak, with the gap between prime and secondary assets widening. Where is price discovery occurring, and which assets continue to lag? 

• What does Australia's first institutional-grade Build-to-Rent Property Index reveal about the sector's performance, and how is it informing investment and lending decisions?

Why attend?

Gain a data-driven view of where Australia’s institutional commercial real estate market stands at mid-year. Drawing on benchmarks that cover most of the market, our experts will examine where repricing has occurred, how capital is moving across sectors and what the latest trends could mean for investment decisions in the months ahead.