U.S. commercial-property prices are falling, and many are fearful of the impact on the broader financial system. We identify the segment facing the sharpest price drops and examine the exposures of banks of all scale as well as other key sources of financing. 

Jim Costello, one of our guests for last week’s episode on the current state of commercial real estate (link below), is one of the industry’s most sought-after speakers — and with good reason. In today’s bonus episode, we present host Adam Bass’s complete conversation with Jim.

When it comes to commercial real estate, much of the attention of investors and the financial press has focused on the state of the office sector, which has been hurting. And while real concerns exist, there are also potential opportunities across and within the various real-estate sectors. 

Prices have fallen sharply for the U.S. office market, but it would be a mistake to assume that all assets face the same challenges. We examine where buyers and sellers sit on pricing to estimate the extent of owners’ potential losses. 

After the market dislocation of 2023, investors will be hoping for a calmer 2024 in commercial real estate. We identify five key influences to help investors navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead.  

Richard Hill of Cohen & Steers joins MSCI’s Jim Costello to discuss the changing perceptions of the commercial-property market, from dull and boring to dynamic and complex — and the current set of risks and potential opportunities.

Our quarterly roundtable examines markets, and market-moving events to help institutional investors as they determine the best way forward; across asset classes and parsing out differences between developed and emerging markets.

The share of the U.S. commercial-mortgage market captured by regional and local banks tumbled in Q2 of 2023, as the high-profile failure of several banks cast a cloud on lending activity. We show the retreat in both market share and in mortgage originations.

Office vacancy has reached a record high for properties in central business districts. Forms of compensation to attract people back to offices could include improved mass transit and reduced travel time.  

Worries about artificial intelligence supplanting knowledge workers have created more pain for the office market but a broader view of the impact on commercial real estate is vital. 

The timing of loan maturities could be key to determining which areas of U.S. commercial real estate may face trouble refinancing. We look at the markets for Manhattan offices and Dallas apartments to paint the picture.  

JPMorgan’s acquisition of First Republic Bank merges two of the largest lenders to U.S. commercial real estate. We list the top mortgage originators for 2022 and point to the possible implications of changing competition among debt providers.

Sales of U.S. commercial properties tumbled relative to a year ago in the first quarter. We set the activity against longer-term trends to distinguish the weakness across property types.   

Recent articles suggesting smaller banks are behind 70% of lending to commercial real estate in the U.S. could be worrying if true. Our analysis shows that while they have gained ground, their share of total originations is still less than one-third.  

Banks failing, another sold and governments stepping in to backstop the fallout. Add to that a global economy coping with high inflation and still shaking off the COVID-19 cobwebs and, on top of that, regularly scheduled meetings for two major central banks. Our panel of MSCI experts helps put these events into context for investors managing multi-asset-class portfolios.

There is greater attention on the U.S. debt market after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and struggles elsewhere. We look at the already-declining pool of lenders active in commercial real estate.

Sales of Manhattan offices for the purpose of conversion into apartments have been minimal. We look at the barriers deterring redevelopment.

The market has recently signaled optimism about slowing inflation and interest-rate hikes. If correct, such easing could lead to lower mortgage rates. But could real estate costs themselves continue to push up inflation?

Prices in December fell from a month earlier and posted a small increase compared to a year ago. The volume of U.S. property deals dropped 62%.

Increased talk of redemption queues has led to some seeing a dimmer future for groups with net-asset-value REITs — but their challenges are not unique. The impact of credit-market stress has hit all private vehicles for commercial real estate. 

Potential buyers and current owners of U.S. office assets have moved apart on price expectations, causing deal activity to drop. We discuss two approaches to gauging the outlook for pricing.

Commercial real estate with an estimated value of USD 1.5 trillion stands in the projected path of Hurricane Ian, which is forecast to make landfall in Florida this week.  

Housing prices account for roughly one-third of the U.S. consumer price index, but have not yet contributed in a big way to recent inflation, despite a surge in apartment rents. The issue is the difference between spot-market rents and the rental measure used in the CPI.

Investors in commercial real estate are confronting the lingering effects of COVID-19 on what being an "office worker" means. We debate the pros and cons of hybrid work and its impact on companies and investors.

The U.S. consumer price index rose 8.5% from a year earlier in July 2022, down from the 9.1% pace in June. But this headline figure masks moves of individual drivers of price growth that went in the other direction. 

Demand and pricing for industrial commercial property got a boost from spiking e-commerce demand during the early part of the pandemic. We look at the longer-term trends in e-commerce sales for guidance.

Sales climbed at double-digit rates from a year ago in…

There was record momentum behind capital deployed by…