What Option Prices Say About Equity-Market Risk

What Option Prices Say About Equity-Market Risk

John Burke

 

The prices of put options imply an elevated chance of further drawdowns in the U.S. equity markets over the coming months. These risk-neutral probabilities neglect a risk-premium component of option prices, and may overstate the actual probability of a drawdown, but they are indicative of markets’ changing views of the likelihood of a crisis. Read our blog on the topic.

 

How to interact with this plot: Click and drag on the bottom sub-chart to zoom in on any period. Use the boxes in the legend to select a horizon and drawdown and hold the shift key to select multiple values.

 

Source: OptionMetrics, MSCI

 


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