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What out-of-cycle write-downs may mean for real estate yields 

Real Estate Investing

As real estate investors seek to understand how the COVID-19 crisis could affect their portfolios, several large Australian pension funds recently wrote down their property portfolios by up to 10%. What could a 10% write-down imply for yields?

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Will coronavirus reduce emissions long term? 

ESG Research , Global Investing

Has COVID-19 affected carbon emissions? Using satellite imagery from NASA and the European Space Agency, we examined the empirical data so far to understand the potential impact, and if there may be a decline in global greenhouse-gas emissions in 2020.

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Factors in Focus: Risk sentiment and factor dynamics in a crisis 

Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Factors , Fixed Income

We analyzed the market effects from COVID-19 and a Saudi Arabia/Russia oil-price war. We also examined – for the first time – credit factor performance. How did the quarter play out? What did our adaptive multi-factor model show as it ended?

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Could coronavirus lead to default contagion in CLOs? 

Risk Management , Fixed Income

The market for collateralized loan obligations is under severe stress during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used MSCI’s loan and CLO models to assess a sample CLO’s loan-default risk characteristics. Could a wave of defaults harm CLOs?

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The end of an era for the bond-equity relationship? 

Risk Management , Fixed Income

Stock and bond prices dropped together during the recent coronavirus sell-off, leading to fears that U.S. Treasurys were no longer the safe haven they had been in previous crises. Did it mark the end of an era of flight to quality?

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Managing risk-model uncertainty through a crisis 

Risk Management

The impact on risk policy has been similar across market crises, as investors consider how to use their models in the new regime. We describe adaptive modeling for internal and external risk policy, and long-view backtesting to support decision-making.

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‘Nowcasting’ private equity in the coronavirus crisis 

Risk Management

What may be happening to the value of portfolios of private assets during the COVID-19 crisis? We used MSCI’s private-equity model, which integrates data on private assets from our partner Burgiss, to try to shed some light.

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How could coronavirus impact credit markets? 

Risk Management , Fixed Income

While newspaper headlines are focused on volatile stock markets stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, credit markets are not immune. Our latest stress test asks, “What would it mean for portfolios if losses reached 2008 levels?”

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Asset allocation and index futures during market crises 

Emerging Markets , Global Investing , Risk Management

During market crises, institutional investors have employed derivatives contracts to hedge market risks or express views on certain performance/risk characteristics. We explore prior use of futures for exposure management and tactical asset allocation.

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Updating the MSCI Agency MBS model for the COVID-19 crisis 

Fixed Income , Risk Management

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely strained U.S. housing finance, distorting near-term prepayment speeds for mortgage-backed securities. With MBS in uncharted territory, we updated the MSCI Agency MBS Model to help investors during the crisis.