Integrated Risk Management

Our Analytics research aims to provide new understanding for investors on how markets, asset classes and individual securities may be linked from a risk perspective. From cutting-edge models for traditional and alternative asset classes to understanding how macroeconomic factors affect asset prices to stress testing scenarios with robust single security coverage, we examine risk for clients' entire portfolios and across investment horizons.

 

 


 

fEATURED research papers and Blog posts


What if credit spreads widen?

Blog Post: Despite record economic growth in the U.S., market conditions have wary credit investors on the lookout for trouble as the credit cycle matures. Should spreads suddenly widen, investors may want to be prepared for BBB credits cascading into the high-yield market. It may be time to strategize for seemingly remote scenarios.


Why is Tesla a short-selling target?

Blog Post: Elon Musk, founder and CEO of Tesla, suggested in a series of tweets that going private could help Tesla avoid the scrutiny of quarterly reporting and pressure from short selling. Do companies targeted by short sellers share common characteristics? Could factor analysis help investors identify stocks that may become short-selling targets?


What happens if Italy leaves the EU?

Blog Post: With populist policies on the rise, globally, many believe Italy’s coalition government could add to the EU’s challenges by pursuing populist strategies that could further disrupt both equity and bond markets. We consider two scenarios – a severe and mild one – with very different implications.


Anatomy of Hedge Fund Portfolios

Research Paper: Measuring hedge funds’ positioning and potential crowding around stocks is of interest to many investors, given these funds’ reputation for outperformance. We explore the performance of hedge fund positions using MSCI HedgePlatform, which has advantages over U.S. Form 13F filings, including monthly data points, improved timeliness and full visibility of short positions.


Bonds and equities: still happy together?

Blog Post: For many years now, stock and bond returns have consistently moved in opposite directions. But the timing of selloffs earlier this year in the bond and equity markets combined with inflation concerns and higher interest rates have market participants asking whether the relationship has changed.1 Rather than returns being negatively correlated (when stock prices come down, bond prices go up), it seems possible they may now move in the same direction. If true, bonds would be less useful as protection against equity tail risk. Investors accustomed to bonds anchoring their portfolios during stormy equity markets may seek to reevaluate their portfolio strategies.


MSCI Integrated Factor Crowding Model

Research Paper : With the rise of factor investing, institutional investors increasingly have sought to understand whether their factor exposures are crowded. The MSCI Integrated Factor Crowding Model is designed to provide investors with insight into how the rest of the market is positioned with respect to factors. The model combines a range of metrics into one standardized measure of factor crowding.
 


WHAT’S DRIVING HIGH-YIELD SPREADS?

Blog Post:The recent trend in high-yield market spreads appears to relate more to concern about rising rates than the potential for credit losses. However, investors should be aware that the impressive recent performance of short-dated high yield bonds and floating-rate leveraged loans may be reversed if credit conditions begin to deteriorate.

MARKETS ARE WORRIED DESPITE LOW-VOL SLUMBER

Institutional investors may be scratching their heads at why the widely watched measure of market concern known colloquially as the “fear index,” or VIX, recently reached a 23-year low despite plenty of reasons for the sort of uncertainty that makes markets jittery.

What is the future of the ECB’s corporate bond program?

With average purchases of €7.8 billion ($8.7 billion) per month, the European Central Bank’s corporate bond buying program (CSPP) has become a major driver in the market.

Why Brexit and Economic Exposure Matters

The performance of markets post-Brexit highlights the importance of capturing how companies across different industries are exposed to economic activity beyond their domestic borders.