Showing 11 - 20 of 307 entries
Research PaperLooking for a better hedge
Peer selection and understanding relationships between companies play a pivotal role in many areas of finance. Previously, we described a methodology for quantifying the similarity between every pair of companies from the text of their business descriptions in 10-K filings, fundamentals, news mentions and return correlations. We showed how the resulting similarity score matrix could be used to identify pairs or groups of similar companies (peers), which have numerous potential applications....
Research PaperFactors and corporate bonds: Single- and multi-factor approaches to corporate credit
Investors have increasingly turned to equity factors as building blocks for their stock portfolios as a way to measure performance, analyze risk exposures or seek enhanced returns. In recent years, some investors have sought to extend a factor framework to fixed income. But these efforts by and large have not been successful, as equity and fixed-income investors have not been speaking a common language. We simulated the performance of six fixed-income factors — value, low size, quality,...
Research PaperSelected geographic issues in the global listed equity market
Over the last few decades, increasing global economic and financial integration promoted economic development and enabled investors to seek opportunities and spread risks across national borders. This report, which was commission by the Norwegian Ministry of Finance, examines diversification opportunities including the importance of emerging markets; how a handful of large technology companies accounted for a significant percentage of recent developed-market performance and omitting...
Research PaperAgency MBS Prepayment Model Using Neural Networks
Mortgage-backed securities make up a huge portion of the U.S. financial system. Mortgage prepayment modeling is essential in MBS investment and risk analysis. It is also among the most complex areas of financial modeling, because of the vast data volume and large number of risk factors. Does an AI-based model using neural networks have an advantage over traditional models in taking on the complexities of MBS prepayment risk?
Research PaperMeasuring factor exposures
Accurately estimating factor exposures for stocks and portfolios can be economically relevant and may improve the investment process for a variety of investors, including asset owners, quantitative managers, wealth managers and risk managers. Methods for measuring exposures vary, however. We provide a comparative analysis of two such techniques — one based on time-series regression models, the other on observable firm characteristics.
Research PaperA consumer sentiment factor from web content
The explosion in alternative data has been a blessing and a curse to investment managers. We have identified one source that provided unique and uncorrelated information when added to analysis of traditional factors and other measures of sentiment. These consumer sentiment metrics may provide investors with additional transparency into sources of risk and return, and could potentially be used to create valuable new factors.
Research PaperFactors’ active role in portfolio construction
As important systematic sources of risk and return, factors play a vital role in building, maintaining and measuring actively managed equity portfolios. Investors and technology continue to grow more sophisticated, which has given rise to new ways of gathering, sorting and analyzing information — and new investment approaches. A factor-based approach can provide deeper insight into funds and individual securities. Research by MSCI and others has continued to show that factors have been...
Research PaperMSCI Multi-Asset Class (MAC) Factor Model Validation
The MSCI Multi-Asset Class (MAC) Factor Model introduces several major advances in risk modeling, including systematic MAC strategy factors, a next-generation fixed income model, and improved equity models. This document demonstrates the value of the MSCI MAC Factor Model in forecasting risk, based on (1) visual inspection of the risk forecasts and realized returns, and (2) statistical tests. The MSCI MAC Factor Model is evaluated on an absolute (stand-alone) basis, and is also compared with...
Research PaperFactor allocation to asset allocation
Asset-allocation approaches have evolved from the traditional 60/40 split to the recent adoption of risk, rather than capital, budgeting across asset classes. However, asset-class buckets are not always clear-cut risk and return drivers. We present a factor-based asset-allocation framework to help investors who have begun to look through asset classes to factors — the underlying drivers of risk and returns.
Research PaperThe Future of Emerging Markets: 30 Years On from the Launch of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index
For the past 30 years, emerging markets have provided return enhancement and risk diversification opportunities for global equity investors. The ongoing liberalization of the domestic Chinese capital market has the potential to transform the characteristics of the equity segment and its role in global portfolios. Recently, emerging markets have experienced volatile performance, driven by changes in monetary policy, increasing political uncertainty and deteriorating conditions for...