Showing 11 - 20 of 445 entries
Research PaperMSCI Two-factor Interest Rate Model
This paper describes the MSCI Two-factor Interest Rate Model. The future cash flow of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) is uncertain due to the embedded prepayment options. The typical MBS valuation relies on Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) framework to price these prepayment options, which are a series of derivatives of interest rates across multiple tenors. A stochastic term structure model is subsequently needed with a reference curve and a volatility surface, which generates distributions of...
Research PaperBacktesting Private Asset Models
MSCI’s Barra Private Real Estate Model (PRE2) and Barra Private Equity Model (PEQ2) have advanced the understanding of investments in global private assets. Private assets were once considered low-risk investments uncorrelated with most public assets due to the smoothness in private asset valuations. With innovative statistical methodology, the MSCI private asset models reveal the intrinsic risk in private assets, show large exposures to systematic risk factors driving public assets and...
Research PaperLooking for a better hedge
Peer selection and understanding relationships between companies play a pivotal role in many areas of finance. Previously, we described a methodology for quantifying the similarity between every pair of companies from the text of their business descriptions in 10-K filings, fundamentals, news mentions and return correlations. We showed how the resulting similarity score matrix could be used to identify pairs or groups of similar companies (peers), which have numerous potential applications....
Research PaperMSCI Liquidity Risk Monitor
MSCI Liquidity Risk Monitor is MSCI’s quarterly report that presents liquidity risk indicators over the previous 12 months. This report facilitates discussion and determination of better strategies for liquidity risk management, by providing information on recent indicators and trends, involving U.S. and non-U.S. corporate bonds and bank loans liquidity.
Research PaperFactors and corporate bonds: Single- and multi-factor approaches to corporate credit
Investors have increasingly turned to equity factors as building blocks for their stock portfolios as a way to measure performance, analyze risk exposures or seek enhanced returns. In recent years, some investors have sought to extend a factor framework to fixed income. But these efforts by and large have not been successful, as equity and fixed-income investors have not been speaking a common language. We simulated the performance of six fixed-income factors — value, low size, quality,...
Research PaperMSCI Agency Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) Models
The Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) programs from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac aim to shift mortgage credit risk from the Enterprises to private investors, with cumulatively $2.8 trillion loans covered so far. To facilitate these capital market transactions since 2013, the Enterprises have disclosed about 20 years of monthly credit performance data on almost 50 million loans, with a detailed voluntary prepayment history, delinquency and foreclosure status data, as well as an actual loss breakdown....
Research PaperAgency MBS Prepayment Model Using Neural Networks
Mortgage-backed securities make up a huge portion of the U.S. financial system. Mortgage prepayment modeling is essential in MBS investment and risk analysis. It is also among the most complex areas of financial modeling, because of the vast data volume and large number of risk factors. Does an AI-based model using neural networks have an advantage over traditional models in taking on the complexities of MBS prepayment risk?
Research PaperA consumer sentiment factor from web content
The explosion in alternative data has been a blessing and a curse to investment managers. We have identified one source that provided unique and uncorrelated information when added to analysis of traditional factors and other measures of sentiment. These consumer sentiment metrics may provide investors with additional transparency into sources of risk and return, and could potentially be used to create valuable new factors.
Research PaperFactors’ active role in portfolio construction
As important systematic sources of risk and return, factors play a vital role in building, maintaining and measuring actively managed equity portfolios. Investors and technology continue to grow more sophisticated, which has given rise to new ways of gathering, sorting and analyzing information — and new investment approaches. A factor-based approach can provide deeper insight into funds and individual securities. Research by MSCI and others has continued to show that factors have been...
Research PaperMSCI Multi-Asset Class (MAC) Factor Model Validation
The MSCI Multi-Asset Class (MAC) Factor Model introduces several major advances in risk modeling, including systematic MAC strategy factors, a next-generation fixed income model, and improved equity models. This document demonstrates the value of the MSCI MAC Factor Model in forecasting risk, based on (1) visual inspection of the risk forecasts and realized returns, and (2) statistical tests. The MSCI MAC Factor Model is evaluated on an absolute (stand-alone) basis, and is also compared with...