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  1. BLOG

    Credit Strategies During the COVID-19 Crisis 

    Jul 27, 2021 Chenlu Zhou , Shuyin Hua

    Fixed Income , Risk Management

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    Short-term credit spreads widened to a greater extent than long-term spreads during the March 2020 COVID-19 crisis. As a result, many U.S. corporate-issuer spread curves flattened or even inverted. What were the implications for corporate-bond investors?

  2. BLOG

    COVID-19’s Uneven Impact on Office Vacancy 

    Jul 26, 2021 Niel Harmse

    Real Estate Investing , Global Investing

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    What was the precise impact of the COVID-19 crisis on office properties? While the overall vacancy rate at the end of 2020 was lower than the previous cycle’s peak, the percentage of fully leased office buildings reached an all-time low.

  3. BLOG

    Reopening Economies and the Resurgence in Value 

    Mar 31, 2021 Waman Virgaonkar , Hitendra D Varsani

    Factor Indexes , Global Investing , Factor Investing

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    After 15 years of challenging performance, many have asked if value is still a valid investment strategy. But the reopening of the global economy following vaccination rollouts has reignited interest across stocks, sectors, countries and regions.

  4. BLOG

    A New COVID-19 Regime for MBS? 

    Feb 17, 2021 Yihai Yu , Miklós Vörös

    Fixed Income , Integrated Risk Management

    Learn More

    In 2020, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities, low interest rates, mortgage-underwriting policy changes and technology advancements led to a historic refinance frenzy and posed an unprecedented challenge for MBS risk management.

  5. BLOG

    Cross-Currency Credit Spreads: Mind the Gap 

    Feb 8, 2021 Michael Hayes , Zach Tokura

    Fixed Income , Risk Management

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    An issuer’s credit spread should be consistent when measured in the USD- or EUR-denominated markets, because both are measuring the same credit risk. Yet divergence can occur as a result of liquidity or supply-demand imbalances, such as those in the COVID crisis.

  6. BLOG

    COVID Stimulus Helped Resilience of US ABS 

    Jan 29, 2021 Yini Yang , Joy Zhang

    Risk Management , Fixed Income

    Learn More

    Issuance of U.S. asset-backed securities fell by a quarter in 2020 from the previous year, as credit tightened during the COVID-19 crisis. The performance of loans underpinning ABS proved resilient, however, as economic relief helped support consumers.

  7. BLOG

    Carrying on Through a Crisis, with Factors 

    Jan 13, 2021 Andrew DeMond , Manuel Rueda

    Factor Investing , Risk Management , Fixed Income

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    Factors have long had a place in constructing equity portfolios, but investors increasingly use factors in sovereign and corporate bonds, commodities and currencies. Which non-equity factors have been the best performers coming out of recent crises, and why?

  8. BLOG

    2021 Real Estate Trends to Watch 

    Jan 12, 2021 Will Robson

    Real Estate Investing

    Learn More

    COVID-19 has caused a severe and rapid economic contraction and accelerated secular changes already hitting parts of the real estate markets. Investors face a fundamental question: How will real estate evolve as a sector and asset class? Here are our 2021 real estate trends to watch.

  9. BLOG

    A Thematic Lens for Portfolios 

    Dec 17, 2020 Stuart Doole , Kumar Neeraj , Vishad Bhalodia

    Global Investing

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    We show how MSCI Thematic Exposure relevance scores helped position growth funds, as an example, alongside thematic funds, and highlighted key megatrends that drove performance. A thematic lens can help analyze other categories and strategies as well.

  10. BLOG

    The Doctor Is Making House Calls: Capturing Exposure to Telehealth 

    Dec 16, 2020 Manuel Rueda , Gaurav Trivedi

    Factor Investing , ESG Research

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    Telehealth has the potential to reduce inequalities in access to care as well as relieve strain on health systems. We tested an approach that combines natural-language processing and MSCI ESG Ratings screens.

  11. BLOG

    Is ESG Investing a Price Bubble? Probably Not. 

    Dec 9, 2020 Guido Giese , Navneet Kumar , Zoltán Nagy

    ESG Research

    Learn More

    Inflows into ESG funds have soared in recent years and months, in part motivated by outperformance since the COVID-19 pandemic erupted. But have these inflows become a self-fulfilling prophecy, creating an ESG bubble?

  12. BLOG

    Private-Infrastructure Risk: Tilting at Windmills 

    Dec 8, 2020 Yang Liu , Sheng Yao

    Risk Management

    Learn More

    Private-infrastructure investments are often treated as comparable to relatively safe long-duration bonds with attractive yields, but this approach can mislead investors as they evaluate risk, yield and portfolio hedges.

  13. BLOG

    2021 ESG Trends to Watch 

    Dec 7, 2020 Linda-Eling Lee , Meggin Thwing Eastman , Arne Philipp Klug

    ESG Research

    Learn More

    Climate. ESG bubbles. Disclosure. Social inequality. Biodiversity. The topics don’t get much bigger — or more systemic. Here’s our analysis of the five ESG trends that will matter most to companies and their investors in 2021.

  14. BLOG

    COVID-19 and Office Income: What Could Lie Ahead? 

    Nov 25, 2020 Fritz Louw

    Real Estate Investing

    Learn More

    With new COVID-19 lockdowns and swaths of white-collar workers working from home, many office tenants are contemplating whether the future of work includes office space. This could have significant impact on office demand and income from leases.

  15. BLOG

    The CDS Market Stayed Healthy amid COVID 

    Nov 23, 2020 Zoltan Fekete , Reka Janosik

    Risk Management

    Learn More

    Since the global financial crisis, many have expressed concern about the health and future of credit-default swaps. Could institutional investors find the liquidity they need to hedge credit risk in subsequent periods? We examine CDS liquidity during the COVID-19 crisis.

  16. BLOG

    Stress Testing Multiperiod Inflation Scenarios 

    Nov 19, 2020 Monika Szikszai , Thomas Verbraken

    Fixed Income , Risk Management

    Learn More

    Will inflation rear its ugly head in the U.S.? Although the outcome of the U.S. elections might have lowered inflation expectations, investors can prepare for scenarios where inflation goes up. In this stress test, we examine three scenarios for inflation over varying time horizons.

  17. BLOG

    Investor Reaction to US Elections and COVID-Vaccine Progress 

    Nov 18, 2020 Dimitris Melas , David Lunsford , Andy Sparks

    Factor Investing , Risk Management , ESG Research

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    To gauge investor expectations after Joe Biden was declared winner of the U.S. election and good news broke about COVID vaccines, we surveyed 151 U.S.-based financial advisers. We examine the advisers’ views on the next 12 months and markets’ reaction since Election Day.

  18. BLOG

    Did Size Matter for Small-Cap Outperformance? 

    Nov 16, 2020 Roman Kouzmenko

    Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Factors

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    Good vaccine news on Nov. 9 drove unusual equity-index and factor returns, including in small caps. The MSCI USA Small Cap Index returned 3.03% that day vs. 0.82% for the MSCI USA Index. Was this due to the size factor, or was there a bigger story?

  19. BLOG

    Are Momentum’s Wings Finally Starting to Melt? 

    Nov 13, 2020 George Bonne , Jun Wang

    Factor Investing , Factors

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    Positive vaccine news on Nov. 9 caused big moves in industry and style factors. Those hit hardest this year jumped, while previous high performers slumped. Did this mark new factors leadership and a long-awaited rotation from momentum to value?

  20. BLOG

    Was Infrastructure Solid During COVID-19? 

    Oct 27, 2020 Will Robson , Niel Harmse

    Real Estate Investing , Risk Management

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    Infrastructure investments have not been spared the effects of the pandemic. A closer look across investment types, subsectors and risk levels over time may provide useful perspective as private-capital firms and their investors manage through.

  21. BLOG

    Is US Equity Overvalued? A Macro View 

    Oct 19, 2020 Chenlu Zhou

    Equity Themes , Risk Management

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    Headed into what some see as “the second wave” of COVID-19, U.S. equity investors may ask: Is this a sustainable market recovery, or a bubble that may burst? We examine the question with our model for market-implied U.S. equity risk premium.

  22. BLOG

    Hertz So Good? 

    Sep 30, 2020 Hamed Faquiryan , Manuel Rueda

    Fixed Income , Risk Management

    Learn More

    We look at the unusual bankruptcy of Hertz Global Holdings Inc. — whose equity rallied in early June, when holders of Hertz bonds were expecting losses as high as 90% in default — to discuss the importance and subtleties of firms’ capital structures.

  23. BLOG

    Corporate ESG Disclosure: A Health & Safety Case Study 

    Sep 24, 2020 Samantha Sue Ping , Gaurav Trivedi

    ESG Research

    Learn More

    How good a job are corporations doing in disclosing ESG policies and data to investors and other stakeholders? We took an in-depth look at reporting of health & safety disclosures. Our findings confirmed some common assumptions and upended others.

  24. BLOG

    Bond Liquidity: How Bad Was COVID? 

    Sep 16, 2020 László Arany

    Risk Management

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    Was bond liquidity worse during the COVID-19 outbreak or the 2008 global financial crisis? We analyzed transaction costs from the forced selling of USD 10 million of U.S. corporate bonds, throughout the two crises.

  25. BLOG

    Missed Rents’ Impact on Real Estate 

    Sep 11, 2020 Bryan Reid , Niel Harmse

    Real Estate Investing , Fixed Income

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    Some commercial tenants have stopped paying rent amid COVID-19. Without rental income, property funds are not able to pay distributions to shareholders and borrowers cannot service their debt. We analyzed property-fund data to assess the impact on investors.

  26. BLOG

    Alternative Views of Equity-Market Liquidity During COVID-19 

    Aug 26, 2020 Saurabh Katiyar , Reil Abucay , Chirag Gosar

    Emerging Markets , Global Investing , Risk Management

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    Institutional investors have typically used traded volume as a way to assess market liquidity. Adding alternative measures that gauge market impact and trading costs can provide a more comprehensive view for portfolio managers and traders.

  27. BLOG

    Understanding the Industry-Momentum Factor 

    Aug 19, 2020 Alex Johnson , Simon Minovitsky

    Factor Investing , Risk Management , Global Investing

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    When COVID-19 first swept through global equity markets, many factors exhibited unprecedented performance swings. How could institutional investors interpret the industry-momentum factor’s moves in the context of the underlying market dynamics?

  28. BLOG

    The Risk of Risk Limits 

    Aug 5, 2020 Reka Janosik , Thomas Verbraken

    Risk Management

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    In times of heightened volatility, risk limits can protect against equity-market drawdowns. While such measures can dampen portfolio losses, they may also have an impact on long-term returns, particularly in case of a sharp V-shaped market recovery.

  29. BLOG

    Did Bonds Deliver? Leveraging Fixed Income During the COVID Crisis 

    Jul 29, 2020 Juan Sampieri , Andy Sparks

    Fixed Income , Risk Management

    Learn More

    Investors may employ leverage with lower-risk asset classes such as bonds to seek higher risk and returns. We assessed the effects of leverage on the returns of three hypothetical multi-asset-class portfolios during the COVID-19 crisis.

  30. BLOG

    Corporate Bonds Through a Factor and ESG Lens 

    Jul 20, 2020 Rohit Mendiratta , Hitendra D Varsani

    ESG Research , Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Factors , Fixed Income , Risk Management

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    COVID-19 has had a profound impact on how companies manage cash flows and liquidity. Bond investors face the possibility of increased leverage, rating downgrades and defaults. Can factors and ESG metrics shed light on these risks?

  31. BLOG

    Measuring Firms’ Remote-Workforce Abilities 

    Jul 14, 2020 Howard Zhang , Daniel R. Barrera , Manuel Rueda

    Factor Investing , Factors

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    It’s clear that some companies were better positioned to take advantage of a remote work environment than others. We built a hypothetical “remote-operation capacity” factor to seek to measure the effect on different firms.

  32. BLOG

    Factors in Focus: How Trendy Is Your Style Factor? 

    Jul 6, 2020 Hitendra D Varsani , Waman Virgaonkar , Rohit Mendiratta

    Factor Investing , Risk Management

    Learn More

    As markets rallied worldwide, investors took on high-beta exposure and rotated away from stocks with lower risk. The latest edition of Factors in Focus explores the details.

  33. BLOG

    Surging Corporate-Bond Supply: Reason to Worry? 

    Jul 1, 2020 Andy Sparks , Gergely Szalka

    Fixed Income , Risk Management

    Learn More

    In the months since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, companies issued a large amount of corporate bonds. As a result of this surge, corporate debt has grown substantially — a burden that institutional credit investors may wish to monitor closely.

  34. BLOG

    Short Interest Factor Performance in Times of Crisis 

    Jun 24, 2020 Vipul Jain , Roman Kouzmenko

    Factors , Factor Investing

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    Given recent short interest factor performance, we asked: What has been the relationship between this factor and large market drawdowns? Were there changes in short selling during COVID-19? Did short-selling bans affect short interest factor performance?

  35. BLOG

    COVID-19 and Real Estate: The Devil Is in the Dispersion 

    Jun 23, 2020 Fritz Louw , Niel Harmse

    Real Estate Investing , Risk Management

    Learn More

    Many real estate markets were showing signs of a slowdown even before COVID-19’s negative impact on property portfolios. Has this correction been similar to previous ones? We looked at dispersion of returns, within and across real estate sectors, for the answer.

  36. BLOG

    Consumer ABS: Recovering from Coronavirus? 

    Jun 11, 2020 Yini Yang , Jian Chen , Joy Zhang

    Risk Management , Fixed Income

    Learn More

    After the U.S. COVID-19 lockdown, new monthly remittance reports for asset-backed securities indicated performance deterioration and signaled potential challenges ahead. Meanwhile, in China, ABS showed signs of recovery.

  37. BLOG

    Equity-Market Dislocation and Index-Based Investing 

    Jun 3, 2020 Shuo Xu , Zhen Wei

    Emerging Markets , Global Investing

    Learn More

    Market turbulence amid COVID-19 presented risks and opportunities. We explore how indexes , combined with the use of fundamental data, provided a wealth of information to help identify potential market dislocations.

  38. BLOG

    Outcome-Oriented Factor Investing with a ‘Barbell’ Approach 

    Jun 1, 2020 Zhen Wei , Shuo Xu

    Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Global Investing

    Learn More

    Though relatively new to wealth investors, index-based factor investing has some similarity to a high-conviction, outcome-oriented approach. We explore combining the two when seeking outcomes such as equity growth, yield enhancement and risk mitigation.

  39. BLOG

    Building Better ESG Indexes: 30 Years On 

    May 27, 2020 Stuart Doole

    Global Investing , ESG Research

    Learn More

    How ESG indexes have evolved over the past 30 years: A Q&A with Stuart Doole, head of new index development at MSCI, about his conversations with investors since the COVID19 crisis started, the growth of ESG investing and how MSCI Research uses AI and machine learning in developing its ESG indexes.

  40. BLOG

    Robust Selection Paid Dividends 

    May 22, 2020 Neeraj Dabake , Ankit Shah

    Global Investing

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    Dividend cuts following the COVID-19 slowdown led to approximately USD 194 billion of lost dividends between February and April 2020. An approach that looked beyond dividend-yield ranking would have avoided some affected companies, based on our analysis.

  41. BLOG

    Four COVID-19 Scenarios: What Might Happen Next? 

    May 21, 2020 Thomas Verbraken , Juan Sampieri

    Fixed Income , Risk Management

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    Our latest COVID-19 stress test looks at four potential financial-market outcomes ranging from a swift V-shaped recovery to a pessimistic L-shaped scenario, in which outbreaks recur and lockdowns return well into 2021.

  42. BLOG

    Five lessons for investors from the COVID-19 crisis 

    May 19, 2020 Dimitris Melas

    ESG Research , Factors , Global Investing

    Learn More

    COVID-19 unleashed a torrent of sharp movements across global financial markets. We highlight five key lessons for investors regarding global investing, managing factors, active management, indexed investing and ESG investing.

  43. BLOG

    Real Estate Asset Selection Mattered — Especially in a Crisis 

    May 14, 2020 Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing

    Learn More

    As real estate strategies become more complex and market disruption continues, attribution analysis may prove a valuable tool. We looked at asset selection’s role in driving portfolios’ relative returns during relatively calm and disruptive periods.

  44. BLOG

    Index Rebalancing During High Volatility: A Balancing Act 

    May 13, 2020 Abhishek Gupta , Pavlo Taranenko , Sebastien Lieblich

    Global Investing , Emerging Markets

    Learn More

    Significant volatility during COVID-19 highlights a need for index reconstitution, but some may worry about trading costs and excess turnover. We investigate the balance between appropriate market representation and avoiding high index turnover.

  45. BLOG

    Consumer ABS Under Coronavirus in the US and China 

    May 11, 2020 Yini Yang , Jian Chen , Joy Zhang

    Emerging Markets , Fixed Income , Global Investing , Risk Management

    Learn More

    Beyond COVID-19’s steep human toll, the pandemic’s disruption of economic life has led to widespread loss of income and impaired some borrowers’ ability to repay loans. What could the impact be for investors in consumer asset-backed securities in the U.S. and China?

  46. BLOG

    How Hedge Funds Navigated the Start of COVID-19 Volatility 

    May 8, 2020 Donald Sze , Navneet Kumar

    Factor Investing , Factors , Risk Management

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    How did hedge funds navigate the initial volatility amid COVID-19? Though holdings information is limited, and delayed, we gained insights into their reaction by examining the change in hedge-fund portfolios between the end of January and end of February.

  47. BLOG

    Credit in the COVID Crisis: Contagion, Valuation, Default 

    May 6, 2020 Hamed Faquiryan , Reka Janosik , Andras Rokob

    Fixed Income , Risk Management

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    As the COVID-19 crisis unfolded, credit markets deteriorated under the stress of a sharply diminished economic outlook. We analyze three indicators of credit-market conditions: default risk, relative value and contagion risk.

  48. BLOG

    Was the Treasury Price Right? Yield Dispersion Amid COVID-19 

    May 5, 2020 Alfredo Bequillard , Greg Recine

    Fixed Income , Risk Management

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    Despite appearances, Treasury yield curves are statistically estimated using price data from hundreds of Treasurys. We compared recent yield dispersion — or the degree to which individual bond yields fall away from the curve — to historical levels.

  49. BLOG

    Using Derivatives to Manage Volatile Markets 

    May 4, 2020 Hitendra D Varsani , Rohit Mendiratta

    Emerging Markets , Global Investing , Risk Management

    Learn More

    We’ve previously noted growth in derivatives contracts to manage emerging-markets exposure in normal and stressed times. Now, facing a real-world stress test, how did investors use these tools? How have implied volatilities and option premium changed?

  50. BLOG

    Hunting a COVID-19 factor 

    Apr 29, 2020 George Bonne , Jun Wang

    Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Factors

    Learn More

    Can we identify a COVID-19 factor and quantify companies’ exposure to it? We explored three ways to do so — from very simple to more complex methods.

  51. BLOG

    MSCI ESG Indexes during the coronavirus crisis 

    Apr 22, 2020 Zoltán Nagy , Guido Giese

    ESG Research , Emerging Markets , Global Investing

    Learn More

    The COVID-19 outbreak is the first real-world test since the 2008 global financial crisis of the resilience of companies with high MSCI ESG Ratings. We analyze the performance of four standard MSCI ESG Indexes over Q1 2020 and longer periods.

  52. BLOG

    新冠疫情期间的 MSCI ESG 指数 

    Apr 22, 2020 Zoltán Nagy , Guido Giese

    ESG Research , Emerging Markets , Global Investing

    Learn More

    在新冠疫情的恐慌抛售期间以及更长时期内,我们将四个全球 MSCI ESG 指数与其母指数进行了比较。

  53. BLOG

    US inflation: The market’s implied view 

    Apr 21, 2020 Andy Sparks , Greg Scheuer

    Fixed Income , Risk Management

    Learn More

    Dramatic declines in oil prices, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy and higher fiscal deficits may create a confusing outlook for U.S. inflation. We examine what the market is telling us about where inflation may be heading.

  54. BLOG

    How COVID-19 could impact private real estate values 

    Apr 20, 2020 Bryan Reid , Yang Liu

    Real Estate Investing

    Learn More

    Real estate has not historically been immune to growth shocks, but the impact of COVID-19 has been harder to establish than it has for public equities. Discounted-cash-flow scenarios may help investors understand the potential sensitivity of their portfolios.

  55. BLOG

    Resilient stocks during the dog days of March 

    Apr 17, 2020 Mehdi Alighanbari

    Factor Investing , Factor Indexes , Factors

    Learn More

    While many stocks were in the red in mid-March, as COVID-19 and oil-market shocks took hold, some were “redder” than others. We examine global markets to better understand the characteristics of the more resilient stocks during this period.

  56. BLOG

    Can diversification help weather the coronavirus storm? 

    Apr 16, 2020 Raina Oberoi , Abhishek Gupta , Jean-Maurice Ladure

    Emerging Markets , Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Factors , Global Investing

    Learn More

    Whether investors include a tactical approach or invest strategically for the long term, diversifying across factors, sectors and geographies has historically played an important role in portfolio construction. 

  57. BLOG

    Could coronavirus depress US housing prices? 

    Apr 15, 2020 Yihai Yu , Joy Zhang

    Risk Management , Fixed Income

    Learn More

    The large economic shocks unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic could be comparable to or even exceed those of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). We used our models to assess whether these shocks could hurt U.S. housing prices as much as the GFC did.

  58. BLOG

    For target-date funds, hindsight was 40/60 

    Apr 9, 2020 Anil Rao

    ESG Research , Factor Indexes , Fixed Income , Risk Management

    Learn More

    Recent market volatility has been especially unkind to those closest to and early in retirement, as the sequence of returns matters for retirement income. Would low-volatility and ESG investments have benefited target date funds during volatile periods?

  59. BLOG

    What out-of-cycle write-downs may mean for real estate yields 

    Apr 3, 2020 Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing

    Learn More

    As real estate investors seek to understand how the COVID-19 crisis could affect their portfolios, several large Australian pension funds recently wrote down their property portfolios by up to 10%. What could a 10% write-down imply for yields?

  60. BLOG

    Will coronavirus reduce emissions long term? 

    Apr 3, 2020 Oliver Marchand , Nathan Faigle

    ESG Research , Global Investing

    Learn More

    Has COVID-19 affected carbon emissions? Using satellite imagery from NASA and the European Space Agency, we examined the empirical data so far to understand the potential impact, and if there may be a decline in global greenhouse-gas emissions in 2020.

  61. BLOG

    Factors in Focus: Risk sentiment and factor dynamics in a crisis 

    Apr 2, 2020 Hitendra D Varsani , Waman Virgaonkar , Rohit Mendiratta

    Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Factors , Fixed Income

    Learn More

    We analyzed the market effects from COVID-19 and a Saudi Arabia/Russia oil-price war. We also examined – for the first time – credit factor performance. How did the quarter play out? What did our adaptive multi-factor model show as it ended?

  62. BLOG

    Could coronavirus lead to default contagion in CLOs? 

    Apr 1, 2020 Joy Zhang , Yini Yang

    Risk Management , Fixed Income

    Learn More

    The market for collateralized loan obligations is under severe stress during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used MSCI’s loan and CLO models to assess a sample CLO’s loan-default risk characteristics. Could a wave of defaults harm CLOs?

  63. BLOG

    The end of an era for the bond-equity relationship? 

    Mar 31, 2020 Chenlu Zhou , Peter Shepard

    Risk Management , Fixed Income

    Learn More

    Stock and bond prices dropped together during the recent coronavirus sell-off, leading to fears that U.S. Treasurys were no longer the safe haven they had been in previous crises. Did it mark the end of an era of flight to quality?

  64. BLOG

    Managing risk-model uncertainty through a crisis 

    Mar 27, 2020 Michael Hayes

    Risk Management

    Learn More

    The impact on risk policy has been similar across market crises, as investors consider how to use their models in the new regime. We describe adaptive modeling for internal and external risk policy, and long-view backtesting to support decision-making.

  65. BLOG

    ‘Nowcasting’ private equity in the coronavirus crisis 

    Mar 26, 2020 Peter Shepard , Yang Liu

    Risk Management

    Learn More

    What may be happening to the value of portfolios of private assets during the COVID-19 crisis? We used MSCI’s private-equity model, which integrates data on private assets from our partner Burgiss, to try to shed some light.

  66. BLOG

    How could coronavirus impact credit markets? 

    Mar 25, 2020 Juan Sampieri , Andy Sparks , Thomas Verbraken

    Risk Management , Fixed Income

    Learn More

    While newspaper headlines are focused on volatile stock markets stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, credit markets are not immune. Our latest stress test asks, “What would it mean for portfolios if losses reached 2008 levels?”

  67. BLOG

    Asset allocation and index futures during market crises 

    Mar 25, 2020 Zhen Wei , Shuo Xu , Wei Xu

    Emerging Markets , Global Investing , Risk Management

    Learn More

    During market crises, institutional investors have employed derivatives contracts to hedge market risks or express views on certain performance/risk characteristics. We explore prior use of futures for exposure management and tactical asset allocation.

  68. BLOG

    Updating the MSCI Agency MBS model for the COVID-19 crisis 

    Mar 24, 2020 Yihai Yu

    Fixed Income , Risk Management

    Learn More

    The COVID-19 pandemic has severely strained U.S. housing finance, distorting near-term prepayment speeds for mortgage-backed securities. With MBS in uncharted territory, we updated the MSCI Agency MBS Model to help investors during the crisis.

  69. BLOG

    How coronavirus could hurt Chinese consumer ABS 

    Mar 20, 2020 Jian Chen , Yini Yang

    Risk Management , Global Investing , Fixed Income , Emerging Markets

    Learn More

    The slowing Chinese economy and trade uncertainty had already put strains on the performance of Chinese consumer asset-backed securities. The COVID-19 pandemic could further harm the performance of these securities. Investors may wish to gauge the risks.

  70. BLOG

    Real estate is about more than location during uncertain times 

    Mar 18, 2020 Niel Harmse

    Real Estate Investing

    Learn More

    With real estate now occupying a greater slice of multi-asset-class portfolios, factors such as lease length, may be more systematic drivers of return than previously thought. 

  71. BLOG

    What scenarios has the US equity market priced in? 

    Mar 13, 2020 Peter Shepard , Andrea Amato , Chenlu Zhou

    Risk Management

    Learn More

    With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. equity market turned sharply downward. We performed a reverse stress test considering various scenarios that potentially explain current valuations.

  72. BLOG

    Coronavirus and oil hit equities — how low can we go? 

    Mar 12, 2020 Dimitris Melas

    Risk Management , Global Investing

    Learn More

    We compare the market turmoil sparked by the coronavirus pandemic with levels of volatility, drawdown and recovery after 9/11 and the global financial crisis (the two other similarly severe economic and market shocks of the last 20 years).

  73. BLOG

    Coronavirus and a potential MBS convexity whipsaw 

    Mar 6, 2020 Yihai Yu

    Risk Management

    Learn More

    Amid rising fears that the human toll of coronavirus will have a significant impact on the global economy, investors have sought safety in Treasurys and driven yields to all-time lows. This rate rally has posed a hedging challenge for investors in mortgage-backed securities.

  74. BLOG

    The coronavirus market impact spreads globally 

    Mar 5, 2020 Jun Wang , Jay Yao , George Bonne

    Factor Investing , Global Investing

    Learn More

    Fear of a coronavirus pandemic and ensuing economic impacts caused sharp drops in global markets after an initially mild response. We look at recent performance from a factor perspective and how quickly factor returns and volatility reverted in past crises.

  75. BLOG

    A coronavirus stress test for global markets 

    Mar 4, 2020 Thomas Verbraken , Chenlu Zhou , Juan Sampieri

    Fixed Income , Global Investing , Risk Management

    Learn More

    After the coronavirus spread to multiple continents, markets recorded the worst week since the crisis. How much further could markets drop if epidemic turns into pandemic? Our stress test indicates room for further losses.

  76. BLOG

    The coronavirus epidemic: Implications for markets 

    Feb 12, 2020 Zhen Wei , Jun Wang , Thomas Verbraken

    Economic Exposure , Emerging Markets , Factor Investing , Fixed Income , Global Investing , Risk Management

    Learn More

    The toll from the coronavirus has been felt throughout societies, leading to repercussions on the global economy and financial markets. We examine investor impact through markets’ economic exposures to China and factors and by stress testing portfolios.