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Could coronavirus depress US housing prices? 

The large economic shocks unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic could be comparable to or even exceed those of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). We used our models to assess whether these shocks could hurt U.S. housing prices as much as the GFC did.

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Updating the MSCI Agency MBS model for the COVID-19 crisis 

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely strained U.S. housing finance, distorting near-term prepayment speeds for mortgage-backed securities. With MBS in uncharted territory, we updated the MSCI Agency MBS Model to help investors during the crisis.

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Coronavirus and a potential MBS convexity whipsaw 

Amid rising fears that the human toll of coronavirus will have a significant impact on the global economy, investors have sought safety in Treasurys and driven yields to all-time lows. This rate rally has posed a hedging challenge for investors in mortgage-backed securities.

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MBS prepayment in 2020: Looking back, looking ahead 

Drawing on two decades of U.S. data on MBS prepayment and borrower incentives to refinance, we used our model to look at three potential prepayment themes for 2020.

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A reality check for MBS duration risk 

Empirical duration data can be used to check whether models for mortgage-backed securities are accurately measuring interest-rate risk.

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Fed policy, the credit cycle and real estate 

Amid the uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy, investors in commercial real estate (CRE) are confronting asset-allocation challenges and growing concerns about CRE valuation and debt levels, after an extended period of easy credit.

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Are you ready for uniform MBS? (Part 2) 

Aligning prepayment speeds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities presents a major challenge to the success of uniform mortgage-backed securities (UMBS), which the two government-sponsored enterprises will launch on June 3.

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Are You Ready For Uniform MBS? (Part 1) 

Fannie & Freddie will conclude Single Security Initiative (SSI) June 3, 2019, creating a single to-be-announced (TBA) market & a new TBA security: the uniform mortgage-backed security (UMBS)

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How mortgage fees affect rates and spreads 

How could potential changes in U.S. mortgage policy and possible long-term industry trends affect mortgage-related fees and rate spreads?

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Managing MBS risk in a rising rate environment (Part 2) 

Will U.S. homeowners slow down the heady prepayment rate on their mortgages — even if interest rates remain unchanged, thus potentially harming returns of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and extending the duration of these securities?

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Managing MBS risk in a rising rate environment (Part 1) 

Bond investors lost $1 trillion during “the great bond massacre”1 of 1994, which was triggered by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening of interest rates. Many U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS) investors and broker-dealers misjudged the risk that fixed-rate prime mortgage borrowers would defer prepayments due to market conditions. This risk — known as “extension risk” — means that borrowers may hold onto mortgages longer than previously expected.