Daniel Szabo is an MSCI researcher focused on risk management solutions and stress testing. He was previously a member of Blackrock's financial-markets advisory team. Daniel holds a bachelor’s degree in financial mathematics from Corvinus University of Budapest and a master’s degree in economics from Central European University.
Research and Insights
Articles by Daniel Szabo
How Eurozone Inflation and ECB Policy Could Impact Markets6 mins read Blog | Jun 27, 2022 |
In a portfolio stress test, we consider the uncertainty around eurozone inflation and the European Central Bank’s policymaking. We outline four scenarios and their potential impact on the bloc’s economy and a hypothetical multi-asset-class portfolio.
Fed Policy and the Specter of Stagflation2 mins read Quick Take | Jun 15, 2022 |
As U.S. inflation has surged and the stock and bond markets sold off sharply, investors are scrutinizing the Federal Reserve’s next rate-setting moves. We look at the medium term and how different scenarios could affect multi-asset-class portfolios.
China at a Crossroads: Three Scenarios for Investors7 mins read Blog | May 9, 2022 |
The recent COVID-19 lockdowns in China and their impact on global supply chains add another concern for investors, on top of the Russia-Ukraine war. We model three scenarios for China and their potential spillover effects on global portfolios.
Fed Policy and the Threat of Stagflation7 mins read Blog | Apr 4, 2022 |
Investors are increasingly focused on inflation and the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy. With the Russia-Ukraine war and resulting sanctions, they may also worry about slowing economic growth. We model three economic scenarios’ potential impact on markets.
How ‘Greenflation’ Could Impact Bond Returns6 mins read Blog | Jan 14, 2022 |
Investors and policymakers are increasingly focused on the fact that a transition to a low-carbon economy could result in “greenflation,” which could put upward pressure on long-term interest rates and in turn lead to downward repricing of bond portfolios.
What Could a Rate Hike Mean for Portfolios?6 mins read Blog | Jul 22, 2021 |
Although the Federal Reserve may not begin raising rates anytime soon, U.S. and global markets are scrutinizing the Fed’s communications about the likely course of policy actions. We consider three scenarios for the timing of policy responses.
How Inflation Could Affect Multi-Asset-Class Portfolios5 mins read Blog | Mar 3, 2021 |
Market participants are hotly debating whether U.S. monetary and fiscal policy may cause inflation. We consider four scenarios — reflation, disinflation, an overheated economy and stagflation — and their potential impact on multi-asset-class portfolios.
Stress Testing Inflation Scenarios6 mins read Blog | Sep 24, 2020 |
Market-implied expectations indicate modest inflation. But some observers are concerned inflation may significantly rise, while others fear deflation. We discuss four inflation scenarios — and their potential implications for stocks and bonds.