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Jim is chief economist on the MSCI Real Assets team and is based in New York. He is the principal author of the US Capital Trends report series and a frequent speaker at commercial real estate conferences. At Real Capital Analytics, which MSCI acquired in 2021, Jim was a leader for analysis across the commercial property universe. Jim also spent two decades at Torto Wheaton Research working on issues of real estate risk and forecasting. He is a member of the Commercial Board of Governors of the Mortgage Bankers Association and a member of The Counselors of Real Estate.
Research and Insights
Articles by Jim Costello
The Pool of US Commercial-Property Lenders Shrank (Again)
2 mins read Quick Take | May 2, 2023 | Jim CostelloJPMorgan’s acquisition of First Republic Bank merges two of the largest lenders to U.S. commercial real estate. We list the top mortgage originators for 2022 and point to the possible implications of changing competition among debt providers.
Different Takes on US Commercial-Property Sales in Q1
2 mins read Quick Take | Apr 21, 2023 | Jim CostelloSales of U.S. commercial properties tumbled relative to a year ago in the first quarter. We set the activity against longer-term trends to distinguish the weakness across property types.
Commercial-Property Debt Not Just a Small Bank Story
2 mins read Quick Take | Apr 12, 2023 | Jim CostelloRecent articles suggesting smaller banks are behind 70% of lending to commercial real estate in the U.S. could be worrying if true. Our analysis shows that while they have gained ground, their share of total originations is still less than one-third.
Banks Have Investors Feeling Déjà vu All Over Again
Podcast | Mar 23, 2023 | Andy Sparks , Florian Sommer , Jim CostelloBanks failing, another sold and governments stepping in to backstop the fallout. Add to that a global economy coping with high inflation and still shaking off the COVID-19 cobwebs and, on top of that, regularly scheduled meetings for two major central banks. Our panel of MSCI experts helps put these events into context for investors managing multi-asset-class portfolios.
Fewer Lenders Active in US Commercial Mortgages
2 mins read Quick Take | Mar 20, 2023 | Jim CostelloThere is greater attention on the U.S. debt market after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and struggles elsewhere. We look at the already-declining pool of lenders active in commercial real estate.
Manhattan Office Redevelopment: Still Stuck on Pricing
5 mins read Blog | Mar 9, 2023 | Jim CostelloSales of Manhattan offices for the purpose of conversion into apartments have been minimal. We look at the barriers deterring redevelopment.
Is Inflation Here to Stay?
5 mins read Blog | Feb 13, 2023 | Jim CostelloThe market has recently signaled optimism about slowing inflation and interest-rate hikes. If correct, such easing could lead to lower mortgage rates. But could real estate costs themselves continue to push up inflation?
US Property Deals Slumped, Price Growth Withered in Q4
2 mins read Quick Take | Jan 19, 2023 | Jim CostelloPrices in December fell from a month earlier and posted a small increase compared to a year ago. The volume of U.S. property deals dropped 62%.
Challenges for Non-Traded Private REITs Are Not Unique
5 mins read Blog | Dec 15, 2022 | Jim CostelloIncreased talk of redemption queues has led to some seeing a dimmer future for groups with net-asset-value REITs — but their challenges are not unique. The impact of credit-market stress has hit all private vehicles for commercial real estate.
A Correction in US Commercial Real Estate
6 mins read Blog | Nov 2, 2022 | Jim CostelloPotential buyers and current owners of U.S. office assets have moved apart on price expectations, causing deal activity to drop. We discuss two approaches to gauging the outlook for pricing.
Commercial Property in Hurricane Ian’s Path
2 mins read Quick Take | Sep 27, 2022 | Jim Costello , Bryan Reid , Haley Crimmins , Gillian MollodCommercial real estate with an estimated value of USD 1.5 trillion stands in the projected path of Hurricane Ian, which is forecast to make landfall in Florida this week.
Real Estate Likely to Transition to Be a Source of Inflation
2 mins read Quick Take | Sep 15, 2022 | Jim CostelloHousing prices account for roughly one-third of the U.S. consumer price index, but have not yet contributed in a big way to recent inflation, despite a surge in apartment rents. The issue is the difference between spot-market rents and the rental measure used in the CPI.
Dorothy Did not Say, ‘There is no Place like the Office’
Podcast | Aug 25, 2022 | Tom Leahy , Jim CostelloInvestors in commercial real estate are confronting the lingering effects of COVID-19 on what being an "office worker" means. We debate the pros and cons of hybrid work and its impact on companies and investors.
What Can We Learn from the July CPI?
2 mins read Quick Take | Aug 10, 2022 | Jim CostelloThe U.S. consumer price index rose 8.5% from a year earlier in July 2022, down from the 9.1% pace in June. But this headline figure masks moves of individual drivers of price growth that went in the other direction.
The Signal for Industrial Property Amid E-Commerce Noise
4 mins read Blog | Jun 7, 2022 | Jim CostelloDemand and pricing for industrial commercial property got a boost from spiking e-commerce demand during the early part of the pandemic. We look at the longer-term trends in e-commerce sales for guidance.
US Commercial Real Estate Sales Motor on in First Quarter
1 mins read Quick Take | Apr 22, 2022 | Jim CostelloSales climbed at double-digit rates from a year ago in…
Top Global Investors: Piling Into Apartment, Industrial in 2021
2 mins read Quick Take | Apr 6, 2022 | Jim CostelloThere was record momentum behind capital deployed by…