Our new framework links financial markets to macroeconomic factors, focusing on cash flows, discount rates, growth and inflation. It helps investors in their capital-market assumptions, risk management and asset allocation, using the MSCI Macro-Finance Model. 

The Federal Reserve is signaling only one rate cut this year, compared to signaling three in March, so rates appear bound to remain higher for longer. Against this backdrop, we updated our macroeconomic scenarios to reflect the latest market data. 

The role of risk management for institutional investors is evolving. Risk leaders are looking to broaden their teams’ focus beyond traditional risk measurement and increase their influence with investment teams. How could AI help? 

Global forecasters have recently suggested that the world economy is headed for a soft landing. Our latest market stress test looks at how this and other, less benign scenarios could affect a multi-asset-class portfolio in the coming months. 

Markets seem to be priced for a soft landing, in which inflation returns closer to target levels and recession is avoided. We also consider two potential downside-risk scenarios: a hard landing and a resurgence of inflation. 

How could higher global rates for longer than expected affect a global portfolio of equities, bonds and real estate? In our new quarterly series, Macro Scenarios in Focus, we consider four potential paths for the global economy and conduct a portfolio stress test.

Investor sentiment has improved since the recent banking turmoil, and a soft landing for the U.S. economy seems possible. But there is geographic fragmentation, with China’s post-lockdown recovery potentially stalling. What could it mean for markets? 

In the wake of the recent banking turmoil, a soft landing for the U.S. economy now seems less likely than at the beginning of the year. We considered four scenarios and performed a stress test on a hypothetical portfolio of global stocks and U.S. bonds.

The macroeconomic landscape for 2023 is shrouded in uncertainty following a tumultuous 2022. We consider four scenarios for growth, rates and inflation and gauge their potential impact on a portfolio of global equities and U.S. bonds.

While a U.S. railroad strike was averted in September, and the U.S. Congress is currently working on legislation to prevent the planned December strike, there is a chance it might not be avoided this time. What’s the potential impact on portfolios?

Investors are increasingly focused on inflation and the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy. With the Russia-Ukraine war and resulting sanctions, they may also worry about slowing economic growth. We model three economic scenarios’ potential impact on markets.