Zoltán Nagy is a member of the Equity Core Research team. In this role, he focuses on questions related to the integration of factors and ESG considerations into the equity portfolio management process. Zoltan joined MSCI in 2008, and first worked on the development of new index methodologies and on other index-related research. Prior to entering finance, Zoltan was a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Algarve, Faro, Portugal, where his area of research was Quantum Integrable Systems. Zoltan holds a PhD degree in Theoretical Physics from the University of Cergy-Pontoise, France, and an engineering degree from the Ecole Polytechnique, France. He is also a CFA® charterholder.
Research and Insights
Articles by Zoltán Nagy
Understanding the Drivers of Transition-Risk Climate VaR5 mins read Blog | Aug 18, 2023 |
Climate stress-testing models like MSCI Climate VaR may be complex, but their main mechanisms can be explained using linear regression. This helps transform input variables into risk outputs, making it easier for investors to understand the primary drivers.
Tracking Multi-Asset-Class Portfolios’ Emissions8 mins read Blog | Aug 8, 2023 |
Our previous research discussed a framework for investors to attribute changes in equity portfolios’ emissions to their primary drivers. We now adapt it to identify and analyze two approaches to tracking a multi-asset-class portfolio’s carbon footprint.
Tracking a Corporate-Bond Portfolio’s Emissions Over Time7 mins read Blog | May 30, 2023 |
Several factors can drive the changes in a corporate-bond portfolio’s emissions. Our framework helps disentangle these variables and provides investors with greater clarity into their climate-aware strategies.
Connecting Emissions Attribution with Climate Action6 mins read Blog | May 16, 2023 |
Tracking a portfolio’s carbon footprint can be challenging given the multiple drivers of changes in emissions. Our framework attributes these changes to their primary drivers, including changes in issuers’ emissions, ownership and financing structure.
A Framework for Attributing Changes in Portfolio Carbon FootprintResearch Report | May 3, 2023 |
We present a framework that allows investors to understand to what extent changes in a portfolio’s carbon footprint are due to companies’ real-world decarbonization efforts, a portfolio manager’s investment decisions or changes in companies’ financing.
How ESG Risk Management Can Impact Security RiskResearch Report | Apr 13, 2023 |
Following extensive research showing an improvement in risk-adjusted returns for companies with higher ESG ratings, we look beyond what a company’s ESG issues were to how that company dealt with them — and the impact that had on stock-specific risk.
ESG Factor Returns: 2022 in Review5 mins read Blog | Mar 7, 2023 |
Our analysis of ESG factor performance in 2022 suggests that time horizons, as well as specific sectors and regions, may be significant in assessing the return characteristics of ESG portfolios.
Understanding MSCI’s Climate MetricsResearch Report | Jan 10, 2023 |
With no “one fits all” solution, to help investors identify the most suitable climate metrics, we take an in-depth look at MSCI ESG Research’s climate metrics in terms of what they measure, how they are calculated and their potential use cases.
Illuminating the Relationship Between ESG and PerformanceResearch Report | Jul 27, 2022 |
Time horizons are key to understanding the impact of environmental, social and governance on stock returns. This paper, which was published in Investments & Wealth Monitor, illustrates the relative importance of event risk vs. erosion risks over time.
Are Emissions Rising or Falling in Equity Indexes?7 mins read Blog | Jun 22, 2022 |
Investors can use different metrics to track their portfolios’ carbon footprint. Regardless, they will increasingly need tools to better identify the sources of changes in whichever climate metrics they use. We present an attribution methodology.
Could Europe’s Shift from Russian Gas Accelerate Climate-Transition Risk?5 mins read Blog | Mar 30, 2022 |
Europe’s search for energy sources outside of Russia may slow the low-carbon transition in the short term. Staying within a net-zero cumulative emissions budget would mean fewer emissions later. What might this path mean for investors’ portfolios?
Why Your Portfolio May Be Hot, Cold or Just Right6 mins read Blog | Jan 19, 2022 |
Investors may want to understand not only if their portfolios are aligned with global climate goals but why they may (or may not) fall short of the mark. A performance-attribution analysis can help them understand how “hot” or “cold” their portfolios are.
Climate Matters: What’s in an ESG Rating. And What’s Not.6 mins read Blog | Nov 23, 2021 |
ESG ratings are widely used in active management and ESG indexes, with a growing focus on climate change. This has increased debate around two questions: Why are ESG ratings so different across providers? And how do ESG ratings reflect climate risk?
Constructing Net-Zero Portfolios: Three Approaches4 mins read Blog | Sep 30, 2021 |
While investors around the world are committing to bring the carbon footprints of their portfolios to net-zero by 2050, figuring out how to do so is not a simple matter. What alternatives do investors have?
Net-Zero Alignment: Objectives and Strategic Approaches for InvestorsResearch Report | Sep 20, 2021 |
Investors have a key role in keeping global warming well below 2°C. We examine four strategic levers that investors can use to accelerate companies’ decarbonization: a shift of capital, active stewardship, financing of low-carbon solutions and policy advocacy.
Foundations of Climate Investing: How Equity Markets Have Priced Climate-Transition RisksResearch Report | Sep 1, 2021 |
To what extent has climate risk been priced into equity markets? How can we model such risks as the world moves toward net-zero targets? We show how climate has increased in importance in the last two years, with potential long-term implications for understanding equity markets.
Deconstructing ESG Ratings Performance: Risk and Return for E, S And G by Time Horizon, Sector and WeightingResearch Report | Mar 30, 2021 |
How are environmental, social and governance (ESG) ratings constructed? Which indicators are the most important in assessing ESG characteristics? Does the answer vary by sector? This foundational paper examines the impact on financial performance of two types of ESG indicators: the individual E, S and G pillars scores and the underlying ESG Key Issue scores.
How Have Stocks Responded to Changes in Climate Policy?7 mins read Blog | Mar 1, 2021 |
To what extent has climate risk been priced into equity markets? Is there a “brown” discount and a “green” premium? Has this shifted over time? How can we model such risks as the world moves toward net-zero targets? We examine the financial impact of climate transition risk on global equity markets.
The Drivers of ESG ReturnsResearch Report | Feb 26, 2021 |
As the COVID-19 crisis affected financial markets, all standard MSCI ACWI ESG equity indexes outperformed their market-capitalization benchmarks. Where has this outperformance come from? Have inflows into ESG investments driven up equity valuations, possibly creating a price bubble?
Better Together: Policy Benchmarks, Active Equity and ESGResearch Report | Jan 25, 2021 |
As we’ve previously demonstrated, incorporating firm-level ESG characteristics into portfolio construction can preserve, and even improve, risk and return relative to the broad market. Here we follow-up by asking how an allocator can integrate ESG considerations efficiently across multiple portfolios in its equity program.
Is ESG Investing a Price Bubble? Probably Not.6 mins read Blog | Dec 9, 2020 |
Inflows into ESG funds have soared in recent years and months, in part motivated by outperformance since the COVID-19 pandemic erupted. But have these inflows become a self-fulfilling prophecy, creating an ESG bubble?
Combining E, S, and G Scores: An Exploration of Alternative Weighting SchemesResearch Report | Sep 2, 2020 |
How one combines environmental, social and governance scores into an overall ESG rating can have a significant impact on its usefulness to investors. We tested two approaches: equal weighting and backward optimization. The results suggest that investors proceed with caution. As published in The Journal of Impact & ESG Investing.
ESG Ratings: How the Weighting Scheme Affected PerformanceBlog | Jun 29, 2020 |
Our recent research suggests that environmental and social issues were more industry specific and tended to show up in financial measures over a longer time frame compared to governance issues. How can E, S and G issues be combined?
Managing Climate Risk in Investment PortfoliosResearch Report | Jun 26, 2020 |
How can active managers integrate climate risk in their portfolios? We test four simple exclusion strategies on a sample global equity portfolio, examining their impact on the risk, return and market exposures.
Which ESG Issues Mattered Most? Defining Event and Erosion Risks10 mins read Blog | Jun 22, 2020 |
Very different ESG issues can be material for different industries. Our research suggests that risks can be divided into two main types: “event” risks and “erosion” risks to companies’ long-term competitiveness. Which ones mattered most for E, S and G?
Welche ESG-Kriterien waren die wichtigsten? Definition von Ereignis- und Erosionsrisiken10 mins read Blog | Jun 22, 2020 |
Geht es bei ESG nur um das „G“? Das hängt von Ihrem Zeithorizont ab10 mins read Blog | Jun 15, 2020 |
Is ESG All About the ‘G’? That Depends on Your Time Horizon.10 mins read Blog | Jun 15, 2020 |
The conventional wisdom has it that governance is the most dominant of the three E, S and G pillars. But our analysis finds different results when looking at contribution to performance over different time horizons.
Five Lessons for Investors From the COVID-19 CrisisResearch Report | May 19, 2020 |
The coronavirus pandemic sparked a surge of volatility across global financial markets. What lessons could investors draw from the COVID-19 crisis? In this paper, we present and discuss empirical evidence supporting five key lessons for investors regarding global investing, managing factors, active management, indexed investing and ESG investing.
MSCI ESG Indexes during the coronavirus crisis8 mins read Blog | Apr 22, 2020 |
The COVID-19 outbreak is the first real-world test since the 2008 global financial crisis of the resilience of companies with high MSCI ESG Ratings. We analyze the performance of four standard MSCI ESG Indexes over Q1 2020 and longer periods.
ESG Investing in Emerging MarketsResearch Report | Feb 11, 2020 |
Recent MSCI studies have shown historical positive correlation between environmental, social and governance considerations and corporate financial performance. Has this pattern held in emerging-market equities?
How Markets Price ESG: Have Changes in ESG Scores Affected Stock Prices?Research Report | Nov 12, 2018 |
Many researchers have studied the link between companies’ Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) characteristics and financial risk and performance. This paper examines some of the underlying economic questions: How have markets priced ESG characteristics? Have they been fully priced? Have there been sweetspots? How quickly did the market incorporate ESG information? We investigate these questions by looking into how changes in companies’ ESG profiles have historically predicted equity...
Integrating Factors in Market Indexes and Active PortfoliosResearch Report | Nov 8, 2018 |
Asset owners use indexes as policy benchmarks and reference portfolios in their asset allocation. Index investors track cap-weighted indexes that seek to capture the market return.
Quitting tobacco stocks without going through withdrawalBlog | Oct 15, 2018 |
Despite strong headwinds, including renewed divestment pressure,1 the tobacco industry has proved quite resilient financially and outperformed the stock market over the past 18-1/2 years. So much so, that some institutional investors are now thinking of lifting tobacco bans in their investment policies. We found that most of the gains associated with holding tobacco stocks over this period were not specific to the tobacco industry, and could have been obtained in other ways. We also show it...
Foundations of ESG Investing – Part 4: Integrating ESG into Factor Strategies and Active PortfoliosResearch Report | Jun 7, 2018 |
How can ESG characteristics be integrated consistently across factor-based and active equity allocations? In Part 4 of the Foundations of ESG Investing paper, we discuss two approaches to applying ESG ratings to factor-based allocations – a one-step and a two-step approach – asking which has done a better job at combining the underlying strategy with ESG while maintaining exposure to target factors. We then investigate overlaying ESG ratings and ESG momentum on the historical holdings of...
Foundations of ESG Investing – Part 3: Integrating ESG into Indexed Institutional PortfoliosResearch Report | May 16, 2018 |
According to recent surveys, asset owners’ have shifted their main focus to ESG’s financial benefits, as opposed to social benefits. In the third part of this paper, we discuss how ESG can be integrated into indexed allocations using MSCI ESG Ratings, which provided better risk-adjusted returns from August 2010 to December 2017 than the MSCI ACWI Index. We used existing best-in-class selection-based index methodologies (the MSCI ESG Leaders Index) for the creation of hypothetical global and...
Foundations of ESG Investing – Part 1: How ESG Affects Equity Valuation, Risk and PerformanceResearch Report | Nov 29, 2017 |
Many studies have focused on the relationship between companies with strong ESG characteristics and corporate financial performance. However, these have often struggled to show that positive correlations — when produced — can in fact explain the behavior. This paper provides a link between ESG information and the valuation and performance of companies, both through their systematic risk profile (lower costs of capital and higher valuations) and their idiosyncratic risk profile...
Have Corporate Controversies Helped or Hurt PerformanceResearch Report | Oct 17, 2017 |
A Study of Three Portfolio Strategies The broad effects of excluding entire business lines, typical of the more traditional values-aligned of a socially responsible portfolio, are generally understood. However, little research has been done on the performance implications of exclusions based on alleged corporate wrongdoing, though such exclusions are common. In this study, we investigate the risk and return impact of excluding companies involved in events negatively impacting stakeholders,...
Investing for the Long Run: ESG and Performance DriversBlog | Sep 4, 2017 |
We see a growing number of institutional investors seeking to avoid financial risks associated with environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors, or even to enhance returns by investing in companies that have strong ESG track records. As we wrote in an earlier blog post, these investors are typically looking to limit the number of companies excluded from their portfolios, both to avoid sacrificing diversification and to be active owners able to engage with corporate management.
Factor Investing and ESG IntegrationResearch Report | Nov 30, 2016 |
Integrating ESG criteria into equity portfolios raises important portfolio construction questions. For example, what is the impact of ESG on portfolio performance and characteristics? How does it alter the risk profile and the factor exposures of portfolios? How does it affect institutional investors’ ability to pursue their investment strategy? Our results show that integrating ESG criteria into passive strategies generally improved risk-adjusted performance over the period 2007 to...
Can ESG Add Alpha?Research Report | Jun 17, 2015 |
Do institutional investors sacrifice risk-adjusted returns by incorporating ESG considerations?
Research Insight - Evaluating the Accuracy of Beta Forecasts - September 2014Research Report | Sep 8, 2014 |
In this Research Insight, we present a framework for evaluating the relative accuracy of beta forecasts. We consider naive betas, historical betas, and predicted betas. Our technique relies on observing the residual returns of a large universe of stocks over various time periods. We find that the expected residual volatility decreases as the beta estimates become more accurate. We also demonstrate residual volatilities can be translated into beta estimation errors. We find that across the...
Global Market Report - Relative Strength of Industries and Countries in Emerging Markets - September 2014Research Report | Sep 8, 2014 |
In this Global Market Report, we examine the latest developments in emerging markets through the lens of the Barra Emerging Markets Equity Model (EMM1), a risk model tailored for this specific investment universe. We examine whether there has been a change recently in the strength of industries and countries. We are also able to gauge how the inclusion of style factors modified the overall picture.
Research Insight - Attribution Benefits of Aligning a Risk Model to Investment Universe - May 2014Research Report | May 20, 2014 |
In this Research Insight, we use the Barra Emerging Markets Model (EMM1) and the Barra Global Equity Model (GEM3) to attribute the returns of a representative set of emerging market portfolios. We show that by aligning the estimation universe with the investment universe, the EMM1 model provides a more accurate and meaningful description of emerging market portfolios.
Europe Market Report - The Mid-Cap Effect - December 2013Research Report | Dec 11, 2013 |
Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, global mid-cap stocks have been unique, providing a better risk-adjusted return than a combination of large and small-cap stocks. Recent global trends, such as low interest rates, decreasing risk aversion and the availability of cash for acquisitions, may have favored the outperformance of mid-cap stocks. In this Europe Market Report, we look at this trend through the lens of the Barra Europe Equity Model (EUE4) and...
Europe Market Report - The Relative Importance of Industries and Countries in Developed Europe - May 2013Research Report | May 31, 2013 |
In this Europe Market Report, we investigate the relative importance of industries and countries in Developed Europe, using a case study with the EUE4 Model. In particular, we explore whether the recent sovereign-debt crisis had altered the relative importance of these two sets of variables. We find that since the late 1990s, industries have dominated countries in Developed Europe. As the sovereign-debt crisis unfolded in 2011, the gap between the two narrowed, although countries never...
Managing Investments with Fundamental and Stochastic Factor ModelsResearch Report | Apr 17, 2013 |
For years, practitioners have debated the benefits of using fundamental versus statistical models. In this Research Insight, we argue that the two approaches to risk modeling are complementary, not mutually exclusive. To support our reasoning, we provide a case study that demonstrates how the Barra North America Stochastic Factor Model (NAMS1) and the Barra US Equity Model (USE4) can work in concert to uncover hidden sources of risk.
Model Insight - Using Statistical Models to Capture Missing Fundamental Factor Risk - April 2013Research Report | Apr 12, 2013 |
In this Model Insight, we investigate whether statistical models can capture sources of risk that are missing from a fundamental factor model. We also study whether statistical models are more effective at detecting missing factors during periods of market turmoil. We conclude that the statistical model effectively identified sources of risk that were missing from a fundamental model. Furthermore, we show that the strength of these missing factors peaked during times of market...
Global Market Report - Forty Years of Better Betas - March 2013Research Report | Mar 12, 2013 |
In this report, we look at the period between January 1997 and December 2012, comparing two methods of estimating the market risk of a portfolio: historical beta and predicted beta, based on the Barra Global Equity Model (GEM3). We investigate this question: which estimation approach performed best during periods of market stress? We find that during our sample period, predicted beta appears to be a more accurate than historical beta as a gauge of the defensiveness or aggressiveness of a...
Risk and Return of Factor PortfoliosResearch Report | Mar 10, 2013 |
Pure factor portfolios have unit exposure to the particular factor, and zero exposure to all other factors. Such portfolios, however, are not uniquely specified because they depend on the regression weighting scheme used for their construction. In this Research Insight, we investigate the risk and return characteristics of pure factor portfolios under several different regression weighting schemes.
Global Market Report - The Mid-Cap Effect - December 2012Research Report | Dec 7, 2012 |
In this paper, we show how Barra models capture the risk and return characteristics of mid-cap stocks using the Non-Linear Size factor. This factor describes the return difference between mid-cap stocks and the overall market, net other factors. We show that since the global financial crisis of 2008, the impressive performance of global mid-caps was attributed, in large part, to their exposure to Non-Linear Size. Monitoring the exposure to this factor provides investors with a view of...
US Market Report - Volatility Regimes - August 2012Research Report | Aug 22, 2012 |
This report analyzes USE4 factor returns during different volatility regimes during the last 17 years, with a focus on regimes with rapidly increasing volatility. Although these regimes were often associated with a decline in equity prices, some style and industry factors offered a hedge during these periods. Among styles: Momentum, Dividend Yield and Earnings Yield performed well in this environment. Among industry factors: Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer...
Europe Market Report - Identifying Safe Havens in Europe - July 2012Research Report | Jul 28, 2012 |
The crisis in the European sovereign bond and equity markets that started in late 2009 is still not resolved. As European economies and the local equity markets form a strongly connected network, the whole region – including core countries – is exposed to potential negative developments in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Italy. In this report, we show how the Barra Europe Equity model (EUE3) can be used to help identify stocks that are less sensitive to the unfavorable...
US Market Report - Do High Performing REITs Offer Diversification? - June 2012Research Report | Jun 27, 2012 |
Some portfolio managers think of REITs as a source of good returns, having low correlation with the broad equity market. This market report examines these claims by looking at sources of outperformance as well as sources of return, risk and correlation over the past five years. Using the Barra US Equity model (USE4), we show that recent REIT performance was mainly due to an industry effect; over the long run, exposures to style factors heavily influenced the return and risk of a REIT...
Asia Pacific Market Report - Asia Pacific Equities in a Correlated WorldResearch Report | Jun 26, 2012 |
The 2008 financial crisis put global markets into a volatile “risk-on / risk-off” swing. When investors worry about recession or deflation, their risk aversion goes up and they shift to low-risk assets, thus hurting risky assets like equities. In contrast, when investors expect a recovery or inflation, their risk aversion goes down and they shift into high-risk assets. This binary attitude results in a high degree of correlation among global markets and may point to a...
US Market Report - Should I "Like" Facebook's IPO?Research Report | May 16, 2012 |
The Facebook IPO raises questions about both the stock’s valuation and its risk characteristics. In this report, we explore how including or exluding Facebook might affect the risk of style, or size segment portfolios of US equities. We also explain how the USE4 Model estimates factor exposures and specific risk of stocks before and after their IPO. For Facebook, we provide an estimation of those risk numbers, which can be used to create proxy assets in Barra Aegis or Barra...
Europe Market Report - The Recent Value Conundrum - April 2012Research Report | Apr 30, 2012 |
According to popular index-based measures, value stocks have tended to underperform growth stocks since 2010. Alternative measures of the value effect have shown different return profiles. In this report, we compare these different measures while touching on the practical issues of value investing, illustrating how unintended biases in a portfolio designed to capture the value effect could strongly influence its performance.
US Market Report - The Effect of the Bush Dividend Tax Cut - April 2012Research Report | Apr 30, 2012 |
US investors are bracing themselves for the potential expiration of the 2003 Bush dividend tax cut. To help portfolio managers prepare for this potential change in the US tax code, this Market Report uses the rich factor structure of the Barra US Equity Model to examine these issues: (1) what effect the initial tax cut had on dividend-paying stocks, (2) the impact of this policy on the overall stock market, and (3) the change in dividend policies of the issuing firms.
The Role of Real Estate in Objectives Driven Asset AllocationResearch Report | Sep 21, 2011 |
In this paper, we examine the role of real estate in a multi-asset class institutional portfolio that adopts an objectives-driven asset allocation framework. We show that real estate may serve a variety of functions in an institutional investor's portfolio and should not be treated as a homogeneous asset class. Instead, the appropriate type of investment should be aligned with the total plan goals, with a focus on evaluating different real estate investments for their ability to add value to...
Does Style Make the SectorResearch Report | Aug 26, 2011 |
Sector rotation strategies are a staple of finance textbooks. This paper discusses sector rotation strategies and contributes beyond the typical literature by highlighting the need to look at the style profile within each sector. Most of the earlier studies on sector rotation focus on the links between industry membership and the macroeconomic or market cycles. We find that style exposures play an important role in sector performance, and returns driven by style effects can dominate returns...
GDP Weighting in Asset AllocationResearch Report | Feb 5, 2010 |
In this bulletin, we examine the effects of an alternative global index weighting scheme that weights countries in a regional index by their GDP. This strategy has led to a superior performance of the MSCI All Country World, MSCI World, and MSCI Emerging Markets GDP Weighted Indices in the past 40 years, when compared to their market capitalization weighted counterparts. We also list possible reasons that could explain this historical outperformance.
What Drives Long-Term Equity ReturnsResearch Report | Jan 12, 2010 |
We analyze components of long run returns of international equity markets using historical data spanning the 1975-2009 period. The analysis shows that after inflation, dividend income was the most important part of equity returns for the majority of markets. Growth in real book value had a low, but steady contribution to performance. Changes in valuation tended to smooth out in the long run, but had important implications to equity investing in the short run. We also show how expectations of...