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Bryan Reid

Bryan Reid
Executive Director, MSCI Research

About the Contributor

As an Executive Director in MSCI’s global real estate solutions research team, Bryan focuses on performance measurement, portfolio management and risk related research for asset owners and investment managers. Based in New York, he covers the Americas as well as global markets.
Prior to joining MSCI in 2013, Bryan started his career with the Reserve Bank of Australia and worked in the structured finance team at Moody’s Investors Service. An economist by training, Bryan holds a BEc (1st Class Hons) from the University of New South Wales, where his thesis was on residential real-estate indexes.

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Contributions by Bryan Reid

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  1. BLOG

    Open- vs. Closed-End Real Estate Funds: How the Choice Mattered 

    Mar 30, 2021 Bryan Reid , Luis O’Shea , Bert Teuben , Luis O’shea

    Real Estate Investing

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    The aggregate performance of closed- and open-end real estate funds in the U.S. was strikingly similar in recent years, despite large differences in their strategy and roles in portfolios. But did some investors gain an edge through fund selection?

  2. BLOG

    Missed Rents’ Impact on Real Estate 

    Sep 11, 2020 Bryan Reid , Niel Harmse

    Real Estate Investing , Fixed Income

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    Some commercial tenants have stopped paying rent amid COVID-19. Without rental income, property funds are not able to pay distributions to shareholders and borrowers cannot service their debt. We analyzed property-fund data to assess the impact on investors.

  3. BLOG

    Measuring Climate Risk in Real Estate Portfolios 

    Jul 8, 2020 Bryan Reid

    ESG Research , Real Estate Investing

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    By evaluating real estate portfolios in terms of different physical risks as well as under different transition-risk scenarios, investors may be able to build a more complete picture of their exposure.

  4. BLOG

    Real Estate Asset Selection Mattered — Especially in a Crisis 

    May 14, 2020 Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing

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    As real estate strategies become more complex and market disruption continues, attribution analysis may prove a valuable tool. We looked at asset selection’s role in driving portfolios’ relative returns during relatively calm and disruptive periods.

  5. BLOG

    How COVID-19 could impact private real estate values 

    Apr 20, 2020 Bryan Reid , Yang Liu

    Real Estate Investing

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    Real estate has not historically been immune to growth shocks, but the impact of COVID-19 has been harder to establish than it has for public equities. Discounted-cash-flow scenarios may help investors understand the potential sensitivity of their portfolios.

  6. BLOG

    What out-of-cycle write-downs may mean for real estate yields 

    Apr 3, 2020 Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing

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    As real estate investors seek to understand how the COVID-19 crisis could affect their portfolios, several large Australian pension funds recently wrote down their property portfolios by up to 10%. What could a 10% write-down imply for yields?

  7. BLOG

    What’s driven capital growth in real estate portfolios? 

    Feb 6, 2020 Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing

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    In real estate investing, capital growth has historically been responsible for most of the observed volatility in total returns. Could breaking capital growth into its components help tell a more detailed story of property portfolios’ performance?

  8. BLOG

    Exploring the ‘what ifs?’ in real estate 

    Oct 29, 2019 Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing

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    The opacity of real estate markets and the wide spectrum of potential outcomes makes it hard to understand performance. Running a historical “what if” analysis may help institutional investors understand how different choices could have impacted outcomes.

  9. BLOG

    What’s the downside in real estate? 

    Oct 4, 2019 Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing , Global Investing

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    Real estate has always been marked by periods of expansion and sometimes painful corrections. But all cycles are not alike.

  10. BLOG

    Real estate may be yielding less than you thought 

    Sep 12, 2019 Bryan Reid

    Global Investing , Real Estate Investing

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    Income has long been an important part of real estate returns meaning yields are often heavily scrutinized by investors. However, headline yields do not factor in capital expenditure requirements which can vary significantly. Investors looking to better understand potential “free cash flow” positions of portfolios post-capex may want to adjust the yields they use to account for it.

  11. BLOG

    The changing face of real estate portfolios 

    Aug 14, 2019 Bryan Reid

    Global Investing , Real Estate Investing

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    Office and retail investments’ historic dominance of commercial real estate portfolios is decreasing, with other property types — including logistics centers, student housing, and data centers — increasing. This evolution highlights how technology and the search for yield have led investors to diversify and seek exposure to other property types.

  12. BLOG

    Asian retail resilience: Have store hours affected performance? 

    Jul 9, 2019 Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing , Global Investing

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    Industrial real estate has outperformed retail assets in recent years, but the trend has been less pronounced in Asia, where store hours, among other reasons, might have led to more resilient retail performance.

  13. PAPER

    Global real estate performance in 2018 

    Jul 3, 2019 Bryan Reid

    Investing (Investment Management) , Performance Analysis

    Download Document

    We present results and analysis from the MSCI’s Global Annual Property Index for 2018, identifying current asset-level real estate performance trends globally and by national market. Globally, income yields on private real estate assets remained at record lows for the year, while technological disruption had a growing impact on retail and industrial property performance. What were the consequences for real estate returns, at a global and national level?

  14. BLOG

    Measuring real estate capital growth isn’t rocket science, is it? 

    Jan 28, 2019 Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing

    Learn More

    In September 1999, NASA’s Mars Climate Orbiter was lost, at a reported cost of USD 125 million, due to a mix-up in measurements.

  15. Investors allocate to private real estate for a myriad of reasons, which means their investment objectives can vary substantially.   As such, investors articulate their objectives in various ways such as market-based benchmarks, inflation related targets or perhaps absolute return targets.  However, an objective is not a strategy; Investors must make this translation from objective to strategy, through to execution.  Market-based benchmarking and associated analytics form a powerful toolbox to understand drivers of risk and returns to evaluate the extent to which a strategy is delivering on the investors’ expectations.

    Watch the MSCI Real Estate Benchmarking Framework Video

  16. BLOG

    Global real estate: To hedge, or not to hedge 

    Sep 12, 2018 Will Robson , Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing , Risk Management , Global Investing

    Learn More

    While not quite as profound as the Shakespearean original, it is still quite a tricky one for real estate investors to grapple with. Until fairly recently, it is one that has been avoided by the majority of real estate investors due to their heavy home bias. But the increasing global nature of the asset class, combined with rising currency volatility, means the question is becoming increasingly difficult to avoid.

  17. PAPER

    Global real estate performance in 2017 

    May 29, 2018 Bryan Reid

    Investing (Investment Management) , Performance Analysis

    Download Document

    In this Research Insight, we present the results of MSCI’s IPD® Global Annual Property Index 2017, identifying current asset-level real estate performance trends globally and by national market.  The analysis focuses particularly on the latest performance year, 2017.  Global -level real estate delivered a total return of 7.9% in 2017, up from 7.4% in 2016 and marking the eighth consecutive year of positive performance since the global financial crisis. Spain was the best performing national market in 2017, followed by Hungary and the Netherlands.  Italy was the worst performing national market.

  18. BLOG

    For real estate, all rate rises are not created equal 

    Apr 25, 2018 Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing

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    A decade after the global financial crisis, the era of ultra-low interest rates may be drawing to a close. Many real estate investors worry that rising rates could hurt their portfolios. However, our analysis suggests it’s the macroeconomic fundamentals driving interest rates, not the rise itself, that are most important.

  19. PAPER

    Retail Apocalypse: Should Mall Owners be Worried? 

    Feb 7, 2018 Amit Nihalani , Bryan Reid

    Investing (Investment Management) , Performance Analysis

    Download Document

    Retailer bankruptcies, department store struggles and empty malls have dominated recent U.S. retail news headlines. The apparent culprit? A mass movement to online shopping. The “retail apocalypse” has led to fears of consumers abandoning physical bricks-and-mortar stores in favor of online shopping. In this paper, we use MSCI data to illustrate that, despite the inexorable rise of e-commerce over the last 20 years, retail asset performance in the U.S. has been surprisingly resilient, providing stable returns and operating metrics. All the same, the changing retail environment means portfolios must be well managed to be positioned for the transition underway.

  20. PAPER

    Building Targeted Real Estate Portfolios: How Many Assets to Replicate the Market? 

    Dec 7, 2017 Bryan Reid

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    Investors often target certain markets when executing their allocation strategies. However, differences between individual properties and high asset-specific risk mean that holding just one or two assets is not usually sufficient to replicate the market. This paper — which uses an example of an investor targeting specific global office markets — shows that a representative exposure could have been achieved with portfolios approaching 10 assets in size. Most of the reduction in tracking error comes from the first few assets acquired, but investors should be aware that the number of assets needed to approach market exposure can vary from market to market.

  21. BLOG

    Have Big-Ticket Properties Performed Better Than Lower-Value Properties? 

    Aug 15, 2017 Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing

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    It is sometimes assumed that larger real estate assets perform differently to smaller assets thanks to reduced accessibility and competition at the top end of the market. Using MSCI’s global private real estate dataset, we find evidence to support the assertion that the size of an asset does have an impact on its performance.

  22. PAPER

    2016 Global property performance 

    Jul 28, 2017 Bryan Reid

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    Trends and Insights from MSCI’s 2016 IPD® Global Annual Property Index.

    Global property held directly by private investors delivered a total return of 7.4% in 2016, marking the seventh consecutive year of positive performance since the global financial crisis (GFC). However, global momentum was negative, the return coming down from 10.7% in 2015.

    While still positive, global capital growth more than halved in 2016 to 2.5% from 5.4% the previous year, potentially indicating that a turning point may have been reached. Despite the slower capital growth, yields in many markets continued to tighten and the income return on the Global Annual Property Index fell below 5% in 2016 for the first time since its inception.

    Sweden was the best performing market in 2016, with a total return of 13.9%. After Sweden, the next best performers were Spain (13.3%) and Ireland (12.4%). The worst performer in 2016 was the U.K., where the Brexit shock had a negative impact on capital values and contributed to a total return of just 3.9% for the year.

    The structural dynamics of real estate have attracted a wave of capital in this cycle, which has propelled the asset class through a period of strong performance. The appeal of the asset class was initially cyclical, as depressed prices attracted capital in the immediate aftermath of the GFC. In a typical cycle, tightening real estate yields would have slowed the flow of capital, but in recent years, record-low bond yields and financing costs have kept spreads attractive.

     

     

  23. PAPER

    Private Real Estate: Valuations and Sale Price Comparison Report 2016 results 

    Jun 30, 2017 Bryan Reid

    Asset Allocation and Asset Liability Management , Investing (Investment Management) , Performance Analysis , Risk Management

    Download Document

    For mainstream financial asset classes, investment performance measurement is based on transaction prices. In contrast, direct real estate is well known for being an illiquid and heterogeneous asset class, making the establishment of purely price-based indexes problematic.

    In order to overcome these obstacles, MSCI’s private real estate indexes are constructed on the basis of professionally sourced open market valuations, i.e., price estimates based on a set of market process assumptions combined with available and relevant transaction evidence.

    Within these limits, Valuation Based Indexes (VBIs) aim to track actual agreed transaction prices as closely as possible. Therefore, it is of critical importance that users of these indexes can gauge how closely this goal has been achieved. For this reason, MSCI computes and discloses fair indicators comparing valuations and prices for assets that have come to the open market.

    The analysis in this year's report covers all countries included in MSCI’s IPD Global Annual Property Index, except Finland. The representativeness of the valuations and the valuation based indexes of the underlying real estate investment market can be assessed by answering two questions:

    • How much do sale prices differ from previous valuations?
    • Are differences random, or were sale prices consistently above or below the latest valuations?

  24. BLOG

    Are low yields a risk for your private real estate portfolio? 

    Jun 8, 2017 Bryan Reid

    Real Estate Investing

    Learn More

    In a global environment of sluggish growth and low interest rates, yields on private real estate are under sustained pressure. Yields have been compressing since 2010 and are now lower than before 2007.

  25. PAPER

    Private Real Estate: Valuations and Sale Price Comparison Report 2015 results 

    Jul 8, 2016 Bryan Reid

    Asset Allocation and Asset Liability Management , Investing (Investment Management) , Performance Analysis , Risk Management

    Download Document

    For mainstream financial asset classes, investment performance measurement is based on transaction prices. In contrast, direct real estate is well known for being an illiquid and heterogeneous asset class, making the establishment of purely price-based indexes problematic.

    In order to overcome these obstacles, MSCI’s private real estate indexes are constructed on the basis of professionally sourced open market valuations, i.e., price estimates based on a set of market process assumptions combined with available and relevant transaction evidence.

    Within these limits, Valuation Based Indexes (VBIs) aim to track actual agreed transaction prices as closely as possible. Therefore, it is of critical importance that users of these indexes can gauge how closely this goal has been achieved. For this reason, MSCI computes and discloses fair indicators comparing valuations and prices for assets that have come to the open market.

    To measure each index’s synchronization of price and value, MSCI compares professionally generated valuations against subsequent transaction prices on a sample restricted to properties traded out of fully measured portfolios. Although valuations and transaction prices may differ significantly at the individual asset level, the MSCI tests are designed to quantify aggregate spreads and thus identify any tendency for valuations to consistently under- or over-state market movements, across countries or time-periods.

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