OneTrust Cookie Consent

Navigation

  • Skip to Content
  • Client Log In
  • Investor relations
  • Sustainability Institute
  • Subscribe
  • Contact us
  • Careers
  • Region
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Client Log In
  • MSCI ONE
  • MSCI Client Support Site
  • Barra PortfolioManager
  • BarraOne
  • MSCI ESG Manager
  • MSCI ESG Direct
  • Global Index Lens
  • MSCI Real Assets Analytics Portal
  • RiskManager 3
  • CreditManager
  • RiskManager 4
  • Index Monitor
  • MSCI Datscha
  • MSCI Real Capital Analytics
  • Private i
  • Total Plan/Caissa
  • MSCI Wealth Manager (Fabric)
  • MSCI Carbon Markets
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Region
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
Navigation

Navigation Menu

  • Our Clients
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Our Clients
    • Asset Managers
      • Featured

        Insights on MSCI One
    • Asset Owners
      • Featured

        Institutional Client Designed Indexes (iCDIs)
    • Banks
      • Featured

        Total Portfolio Footprinting
    • Corporates
      • Featured

        ESG Trends to Watch
    • Hedge Funds
      • Featured

        Factor Models
    • Insurance Companies
      • Featured

        Total Portfolio Footprinting
    • Wealth Managers
      • Featured

        Visualizing Investment Data
  • Our Solutions
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Our Solutions
    • Analytics
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Analytics
      • Analytics Overview
      • Risk Management
      • AI Portfolio Insights
      • Multi-asset Class Factor Models
      • Quantitative Investment Solutions
      • Fixed Income Analytics
      • Portfolio Management
      • Crowding Solutions
      • Regulatory Solutions
      • Managed Solutions
    • Climate Investing
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Climate Investing
      • Climate Investing Overview
      • Featured

        Implied Temperature Rise
      • Featured

        Trends 2025
      • Biodiversity
      • Carbon Markets
      • GeoSpatial Asset Intelligence
      • Portfolio Sustainability Insights
      • Real Estate Climate Solutions
    • Sustainable Investing
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Sustainable Investing
      • Sustainable Investing Overview
      • Featured

        Trends 2025
      • ESG Fund Ratings and Climate Search Tool
        • Featured

          ESG and Climate Funds in Focus
      • ESG Ratings
        • Featured

          What is ESG
      • Impact Solutions
        • Featured

          Role of Capital in the Net-Zero Revolution
      • Sustainability Reporting Services
      • Sustainability and Climate Regulatory Toolkit
        • Featured

          Role of Capital in the Net-Zero Revolution
    • Factor Investing
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Factor Investing
      • Factor Investing Overview
      • Featured

        MSCI Japan Equity Factor Model
      • Equity Factor Models
      • FactorLab
      • MSCI FaCS
      • Factor Indexes
    • Fixed Income
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Fixed Income
      • Fixed Income Overview
      • Fixed Income Analytics
      • Fixed Income Indexes
    • Private Capital
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Private Capital
      • Private Capital Overview
      • Featured

        Private Capital Benchmarks
      • Private i
      • Total Plan Manager (formerly Caissa)
      • Emissions Footprinting
      • Private Capital Indexes
      • Private Company Data Connect
    • Real Assets
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Real Assets
      • Real Assets Overview
      • Featured

        Real Estate Market Size
      • INCANS
      • Index Intel
      • Portfolio Services
      • Property Intel
      • Private Real Assets Indexes
      • Real Capital Analytics
    • Wealth Management
  • Indexes
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Indexes
    • Featured

      Index Education
    • Featured

      Underlying Exchange Traded Products
    • Indexes Overview
    • By Category
      • Go back to Indexes
      • By Category
      • By Category Overview
      • Climate
      • Market Cap
      • Fixed Income
      • Client-Designed
      • Sustainability
      • Factor
      • Thematic
        • Featured

          Thematic Exposure Standard
      • Private Real Assets
      • Private Capital
    • Tools
      • Go back to Indexes
      • Tools
      • Tools Overview
      • Index Monitor
      • MSCI Index API
      • MSCI IndexMetrics®
      • Index Data Modules
      • Equity Index Constituents
      • Fixed Income Index Constituents
      • Index Profile Tool
      • Direct Indexing
    • Resources
      • Go back to Indexes
      • Resources
      • Resources Overview
      • Communications
      • Education
      • Equity Factsheets
      • Derivatives
      • Methodology
      • Performance
      • Regulation
  • Research & Insights
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Research & Insights
    • Featured

      Navigating Uncertainty: Tariff Implications
    • Featured

      In Focus
    • Research & Insights
      • Go back to Research & Insights
      • Research & Insights
      • Research & Insights Overview
      • Carbon Markets
      • Climate
      • Equities
      • Factor Investing
      • Fixed Income
      • Multi-Asset Class
      • Private Capital
      • Real Estate
      • Sustainability
    • Events
      • Go back to Research & Insights
      • Events
      • Events Overview
      • Featured

        Upcoming climate events
      • On Demand
  • Discover MSCI
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Discover MSCI
    • About Us
      • Featured

        2022 Annual Report
    • Technology
      • Go back to Discover MSCI
      • Technology
      • Technology Overview
      • Data Explorer
      • Developer Community
      • Technology and Data
    • Corporate Responsibility
      • Go back to Discover MSCI
      • Corporate Responsibility
      • Corporate Responsibility Overview
      • Enabling Sustainable Investing
      • Environmental Sustainability
      • Governance Practices
      • Social Practices
      • Sustainability Reports and Policies
    • Inclusion & Belonging
    • Media Room
    • Our Leadership
      • Featured

        Henry A. Fernandez
    • Recognition
  • Client Log In
  • Investor relations
  • Sustainability Institute
  • Subscribe
  • Contact us
  • Careers
  • Region
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Client Log In
  • MSCI ONE
  • MSCI Client Support Site
  • Barra PortfolioManager
  • BarraOne
  • MSCI ESG Manager
  • MSCI ESG Direct
  • Global Index Lens
  • MSCI Real Assets Analytics Portal
  • RiskManager 3
  • CreditManager
  • RiskManager 4
  • Index Monitor
  • MSCI Datscha
  • MSCI Real Capital Analytics
  • Private i
  • Total Plan/Caissa
  • MSCI Wealth Manager (Fabric)
  • MSCI Carbon Markets
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Region
  • China
  • India
  • Japan

Main Search

Popular searches:
ACWI Research ESG Factor Investment Insights Gallery Asset Owners
Might interest you:
How Property Type and Location Affected US Lenders’ Losses

Extended Viewer

 

How Property Type and Location Affected US Lenders’ Losses

 

Fritz Louw
July 05, 2024

Some U.S. commercial-real-estate lenders have experienced significant distress this year due to concerns over their exposure to falling property values.1 Although the overall size of exposure is relevant, the nature of the collateral pool is also critical. What type of property were the loans made against? Where are the properties? When were the loans made? The answers to these questions drive how the value of the collateral has evolved over the lives of loans.

Price changes for loan collateral

We matched loan-by-loan data for 6,648 lenders from the MSCI Mortgage Debt Intelligence database with granular price-growth trends to analyze the collateral pools. The analysis estimated that about one-third of lenders had unrealized losses in aggregate.2 We further examined a subset of 1,189 lenders, excluding smaller lenders and those that often have loans concentrated in just one or two properties.3

The lenders with the worst-performing pools were those with highly concentrated exposures to challenged property-type and market segments, such as Manhattan office. Those with the best-performing collateral pools were generally more diversified across markets and had greater exposure to industrial and hotel properties.

For example, Lender 1, which had an estimated -28% unrealized loss as of Q1 2024, was almost exclusively exposed to offices in Manhattan and Washington, D.C. Conversely, Lender 1,188, with a 42% unrealized gain, had more exposure to retail, industrial and hotel than any of the 15 worst-performing lenders and was more diversified geographically.

Offices and Manhattan were the main drags on worst-hit lenders

Each asset in a lender’s collateral pool was marked to market by increasing its origination value by the MSCI hedonic price index most relevant to the property type and location, to Q1 2024. These were aggregated and expressed as a percentage of the total origination value of the pool. Each color block on the chart represents the weighted contribution of a market or property-type exposure to a lender’s total percentage gain or loss.


1 Luca Casiraghi and Libby Cherry, “The ‘Greatest Real Estate Crisis’ Since 2008 Starts to Hit Banks,” Bloomberg, Feb. 10, 2024.

2 According to the MSCI Real Capital Analytics transaction database, no sale of the associated collateral has occurred and as such any loss on the loan has not been realized as of Q1 2024.

3 Lenders with at least five real-estate loans for a total not less than USD 100 million were analyzed. Commercial-mortgage-backed-securities lenders were excluded from the analysis, as well as government-agency lenders. Mezzanine loans excluded.

Related content

Real Assets in Focus: Are We Nearly There Yet?

Investors are still waiting for a recovery in commercial real estate. We outline the state of play in early 2024 and identify potential signposts for an upturn in the asset class.

Read the blog post

Assessing the Health of US Real Estate’s Loan Collateral

How impactful will the coming wave of U.S. property-loan refinancing be? Two significant shifts have characterized the real-estate debt market over the past 18 months: a drop in property values and a corresponding change in the availability of debt financing.

Explore more

Wave of Property-Loan Maturities Amplified by Extensions

Higher interest rates and a pricing slump have challenged the refinancing of commercial-property debt. We calculate the volume of U.S. loans likely extended from 2023 and chart the lenders behind the slate of maturities starting in 2024.

Learn more

msci logo
  • Terms of Use
  • Legal
  • Modern Slavery Statement
  • Privacy notice
  • Index regulation
  • Locations
  • Cookies
  • Use of ISO standards
  • Site map
Subscribe Contact us
© 2025 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved

UtmAnalytics