OneTrust Cookie Consent

Navigation

  • Skip to Content
  • Client Log In
  • Investor relations
  • Sustainability Institute
  • Subscribe
  • Contact us
  • Careers
  • Region
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Client Log In
  • MSCI ONE
  • MSCI Client Support Site
  • Barra PortfolioManager
  • BarraOne
  • MSCI ESG Manager
  • MSCI ESG Direct
  • Global Index Lens
  • MSCI Real Assets Analytics Portal
  • RiskManager 3
  • CreditManager
  • RiskManager 4
  • Index Monitor
  • MSCI Datscha
  • MSCI Real Capital Analytics
  • Private i
  • Total Plan/Caissa
  • MSCI Wealth Manager (Fabric)
  • MSCI Carbon Markets
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Region
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
Navigation

Navigation Menu

  • Our Clients
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Our Clients
    • Asset Managers
      • Featured

        Insights on MSCI One
    • Asset Owners
      • Featured

        Institutional Client Designed Indexes (iCDIs)
    • Banks
      • Featured

        Total Portfolio Footprinting
    • Corporates
      • Featured

        ESG Trends to Watch
    • Hedge Funds
      • Featured

        Factor Models
    • Insurance Companies
      • Featured

        Total Portfolio Footprinting
    • Wealth Managers
      • Featured

        Visualizing Investment Data
  • Our Solutions
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Our Solutions
    • Analytics
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Analytics
      • Analytics Overview
      • Risk Management
      • AI Portfolio Insights
      • Multi-asset Class Factor Models
      • Quantitative Investment Solutions
      • Fixed Income Analytics
      • Portfolio Management
      • Crowding Solutions
      • Regulatory Solutions
      • Managed Solutions
    • Climate Investing
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Climate Investing
      • Climate Investing Overview
      • Featured

        Implied Temperature Rise
      • Featured

        Trends 2025
      • Biodiversity
      • Carbon Markets
      • GeoSpatial Asset Intelligence
      • Portfolio Sustainability Insights
      • Real Estate Climate Solutions
    • Sustainable Investing
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Sustainable Investing
      • Sustainable Investing Overview
      • Featured

        Trends 2025
      • ESG Fund Ratings and Climate Search Tool
        • Featured

          ESG and Climate Funds in Focus
      • ESG Ratings
        • Featured

          What is ESG
      • Impact Solutions
        • Featured

          Role of Capital in the Net-Zero Revolution
      • Sustainability Reporting Services
      • Sustainability and Climate Regulatory Toolkit
        • Featured

          Role of Capital in the Net-Zero Revolution
    • Factor Investing
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Factor Investing
      • Factor Investing Overview
      • Featured

        MSCI Japan Equity Factor Model
      • Equity Factor Models
      • FactorLab
      • MSCI FaCS
      • Factor Indexes
    • Fixed Income
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Fixed Income
      • Fixed Income Overview
      • Fixed Income Analytics
      • Fixed Income Indexes
    • Private Capital
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Private Capital
      • Private Capital Overview
      • Featured

        Private Capital Benchmarks
      • Private i
      • Total Plan Manager (formerly Caissa)
      • Emissions Footprinting
      • Private Capital Indexes
      • Private Company Data Connect
    • Real Assets
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Real Assets
      • Real Assets Overview
      • Featured

        Real Estate Market Size
      • INCANS
      • Index Intel
      • Portfolio Services
      • Property Intel
      • Private Real Assets Indexes
      • Real Capital Analytics
    • Wealth Management
  • Indexes
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Indexes
    • Featured

      Index Education
    • Featured

      Underlying Exchange Traded Products
    • Indexes Overview
    • By Category
      • Go back to Indexes
      • By Category
      • By Category Overview
      • Climate
      • Market Cap
      • Fixed Income
      • Client-Designed
      • Sustainability
      • Factor
      • Thematic
        • Featured

          Thematic Exposure Standard
      • Private Real Assets
      • Private Capital
    • Tools
      • Go back to Indexes
      • Tools
      • Tools Overview
      • Index Monitor
      • MSCI Index API
      • MSCI IndexMetrics®
      • Index Data Modules
      • Equity Index Constituents
      • Fixed Income Index Constituents
      • Index Profile Tool
      • Direct Indexing
    • Resources
      • Go back to Indexes
      • Resources
      • Resources Overview
      • Communications
      • Education
      • Equity Factsheets
      • Derivatives
      • Methodology
      • Performance
      • Regulation
  • Research & Insights
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Research & Insights
    • Featured

      Navigating Uncertainty: Tariff Implications
    • Featured

      In Focus
    • Research & Insights
      • Go back to Research & Insights
      • Research & Insights
      • Research & Insights Overview
      • Carbon Markets
      • Climate
      • Equities
      • Factor Investing
      • Fixed Income
      • Multi-Asset Class
      • Private Capital
      • Real Estate
      • Sustainability
    • Events
      • Go back to Research & Insights
      • Events
      • Events Overview
      • Featured

        Upcoming climate events
      • On Demand
  • Discover MSCI
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Discover MSCI
    • About Us
      • Featured

        2022 Annual Report
    • Technology
      • Go back to Discover MSCI
      • Technology
      • Technology Overview
      • Data Explorer
      • Developer Community
      • Technology and Data
    • Corporate Responsibility
      • Go back to Discover MSCI
      • Corporate Responsibility
      • Corporate Responsibility Overview
      • Enabling Sustainable Investing
      • Environmental Sustainability
      • Governance Practices
      • Social Practices
      • Sustainability Reports and Policies
    • Inclusion & Belonging
    • Media Room
    • Our Leadership
      • Featured

        Henry A. Fernandez
    • Recognition
  • Client Log In
  • Investor relations
  • Sustainability Institute
  • Subscribe
  • Contact us
  • Careers
  • Region
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Client Log In
  • MSCI ONE
  • MSCI Client Support Site
  • Barra PortfolioManager
  • BarraOne
  • MSCI ESG Manager
  • MSCI ESG Direct
  • Global Index Lens
  • MSCI Real Assets Analytics Portal
  • RiskManager 3
  • CreditManager
  • RiskManager 4
  • Index Monitor
  • MSCI Datscha
  • MSCI Real Capital Analytics
  • Private i
  • Total Plan/Caissa
  • MSCI Wealth Manager (Fabric)
  • MSCI Carbon Markets
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Region
  • China
  • India
  • Japan

Main Search

Popular searches:
ACWI Research ESG Factor Investment Insights Gallery Asset Owners
Might interest you:
US Inflation and Interest Rates: A Sectors’ Perspective

Extended Viewer

 

US Inflation and Interest Rates: A Sectors’ Perspective

 

Ashish Lodh, Ana Harris, and Fotios Kassianidis
June 01, 2022

Inflation in the U.S. has accelerated over the last 18 months to a high of 8.5% in March (8.3% in April), a level that was last observed in the early 1970s.1 In response to this surge, the U.S. Federal Reserve instituted a series of interest rate hikes (shown by the slight uptick in rates in the chart below) in an attempt to slow down inflation without further endangering the post-COVID 19 economic recovery.

And while inflation has been surging, the economic recovery has sputtered, with gross domestic product (GDP) contracting 1.4% (year-over-year) in the first quarter of 2022.2 On a historical basis, defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples and energy have benefited the most in times of rising inflation. Information technology (IT) was the other sector with positive excess returns during periods of rising inflation and performed even better in falling-inflation environments.

However, when inflation and economic growth trends were combined, the outcome was slightly altered. On average, the defensive sectors that performed well in rising inflation environments (healthcare, consumer staples and energy), continued to benefit during periods of slowing growth, which was in line with their defensive bias. On the other hand, while IT typically did well in periods of rising inflation, it lagged in periods of rising inflation and lower growth. One sector outlier is utilities, which generally underperformed during periods of high inflation and rising growth but did well in lower-growth environments with high inflation due to its regulated nature and consistent dividends.

As shown in the chart below, energy, utilities and consumer staples have been the best-performing sectors year-to-date, with the recent energy-sector surge largely idiosyncratic and linked to a supply shock from the Russia-Ukraine war and associated international sanctions on Russia.

While research and historical analysis can help us understand U.S.-sector performance, evaluation has become increasingly difficult with soaring inflation that will continue to impact consumer spending and influence the Fed’s actions. Interest rate hikes by the Fed could influence the economic growth outlook and may lead to any number of economic regimes. The resulting regime, in turn, may impact the performance of equities, since economic growth, inflation and interest rates affect companies’ cash flows. The impact on cash flows will vary by sector, depending on their ability to adjust prices for inflation and how economic growth impacts the demand for that sector’s products and/or services.

Stay tuned.

USA Federal Reserve Effective Rates

Source: MSCI, monthly net returns in USD, as of April 2022


1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis


Related Content

Global Investing Trends

You’ll find insights provided in research papers, blogs and a Chart of the Week that succinctly puts topical issues in context.

Explore More

Energy-Sector Drivers

Looking at sectors through a factor lens may provide additional insights for investors in terms of explaining performance.

Read More

Valuations Can Help in Evaluating Sectors

Along with other factors, comparing current sector valuations to longer-term averages has helped investors as they make decisions about whether to rotate in or out of specific sectors.

Learn More

msci logo
  • Terms of Use
  • Legal
  • Modern Slavery Statement
  • Privacy notice
  • Index regulation
  • Locations
  • Cookies
  • Use of ISO standards
  • Site map
Subscribe Contact us
© 2025 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved

UtmAnalytics