What Could a Rate Hike Mean for Portfolios?
- Recent shifts in the U.S. yield curve show that investors are sensitive to the Federal Reserve's communication about monetary policy and the anticipated impact of future rate hikes.
- We propose three scenarios for how markets could perceive the timing of policy actions: too much, too soon; ideal timing; or too little, too late.
- Potential implications for a diversified portfolio of global equities and bonds could range between -15% and +7%, and emerging markets may be more sensitive than the U.S.
- Ideal timing: Markets perceive that the Fed tapers asset purchases and hikes rates at the right time to keep inflation controlled while helping economic growth remain stable and robust. Investors are confident, equities gain and long-term rates increase slightly. Emerging markets benefit from strong U.S. growth.
- Too much, too early: Markets believe that policy actions occur too early and are overaggressive. Short- and long-term economic growth are negatively impacted, and market-implied inflation expectations drop. Equities fall, the yield curve flattens and the slowdown in the U.S. growth hurts emerging markets.7
- Too little, too late: Markets perceive that the policy path is too slow, which brings inflation worries to the forefront. While short-term growth is steady, long-term forecasts are hit. Higher inflation and a diminished growth outlook increase equity risk premia. Equities decline, while long-term interest rates pick up, resulting in a positive bond-equity correlation.
Scenario | Ideal Timing | Too Much, Too Early | Too Little, Too Late |
---|---|---|---|
Scenario BEI-Rate Shocks (basis points) | Ideal Timing Two-year: -15 10-year: +5 | Too Much, Too Early Two-year: -85 10-year: -65 | Too Little, Too Late Two-year: +165 10-year: +115 |
Scenario Treasury-rate Shocks (basis points) | Ideal Timing Two-year: +30 10-year: +20 | Too Much, Too Early Two-year: +30 10-year: -40 | Too Little, Too Late Two-year: +30 10-year: +160 |
Scenario US Credit-Spread Shocks (basis points) | Ideal Timing Investment Grade: -15 High Yield: -40 | Too Much, Too Early Investment Grade: +40 High Yield: +150 | Too Little, Too Late Investment Grade: +45 High Yield: +190 |
Scenario US Equity Return (nominal) | Ideal Timing +13% | Too Much, Too Early -17% | Too Little, Too Late -18% |
Scenario EM Equity Return (nominal, in local currency) | Ideal Timing +20% | Too Much, Too Early -25% | Too Little, Too Late -23% |
Scenario EUR/USD Shocks | Ideal Timing 0% | Too Much, Too Early -7% | Too Little, Too Late +10% |
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