Government-Bond Yields and Inflation

Juan Sampieri and Andy Sparks

March 10, 2022

Inflation expectations based on the prices of government bonds have sharply risen since January, as military conflict in Ukraine increased in likelihood and then turned into an all-out war. In the U.S., one-year market-based inflation jumped from 3.7% on Jan. 31 to 5% as of March 9. Longer maturities showed smaller increases, suggesting the market sees inflation peaking this year and then gradually falling. We observed similar patterns, in other major currencies. The Federal Reserve will provide more guidance on its inflation policy at its upcoming meeting on March 15 and 16.

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