Stress Testing Portfolios: Best Practices for Shockwave Propagation
Research Paper
September 19, 2016
Preview
Scenario propagation is the second stage of predictive stress testing practices, following scenario definition. This paper illustrates common pitfalls and suggests best practices for a robust propagation of the shockwave of a prospective scenario onto all relevant risk factors of a financial portfolio. The central observation: Risk managers must guard against "noise" in the predictions. Diagnostic statistics can reduce noise and ensure meaningful predictions. Key best practices include: the importance of checking compatibility between chosen shocks and the covariance matrix; the selection of an appropriate estimation window for the latter; portfolio-specific inputs on scenario design; and the importance of limiting the number of shocks.
Read the full paper
Read the full paper
Provide your information for instant access to our research papers.
The content of this page is for informational purposes only and is intended for institutional professionals with the analytical resources and tools necessary to interpret any performance information. Nothing herein is intended to recommend any product, tool or service. For all references to laws, rules or regulations, please note that the information is provided “as is” and does not constitute legal advice or any binding interpretation. Any approach to comply with regulatory or policy initiatives should be discussed with your own legal counsel and/or the relevant competent authority, as needed.