US Capital Trends: Changing Dynamics in Real Estate Lending
Preview
Investors in U.S. commercial real estate experienced a more active debt market in the first half of 2025 as the volume of originations and the overall count of lenders increased. Some lender groups gained loan-market share while others fell behind as the market continued to adapt to an era of higher Federal Reserve rates.
Highlights:
- Investor-driven lenders, such as private-credit funds, increased their share of the U.S. commercial-mortgage market in the first half of 2025. More banks participated in lending over the period, but banks’ overall share of the market shrank.
- An increase in apartment-building loan foreclosures in the first half of 2025 could indicate wider trouble in refinancing apartment loans that were originated in 2021-22, when borrowing costs were at historic lows.
- An estimated USD 300 billion of commercial-property loans will come due in the second half of 2025. Another estimated USD 600 billion in mortgages have been extended from their original maturity dates, amid a challenged financial market for borrowers.
Read this report to gain a deeper understanding of the schedule of maturing loans, shifts in key loan metrics across lender groups, the varying impact and use of leverage, plus insights into cross-border lenders and construction lending.
Acquisition loans and refinancing only. Source: MSCI Mortgage Debt Intelligence
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