Clean Cooking Dominates CORSIA, but Premium Faces Pressure
Clean-cooking projects account for around 10% of all carbon credits issued globally, but their significance is far greater within CORSIA, the offsetting scheme for international aviation.1 Of the 43 projects currently eligible for Phase I compliance (2024 to 2026), 40 are clean cooking, spanning countries such as Rwanda, Malawi and Cambodia.
This concentration has supported a substantial premium for eligible cookstove credits: above USD 14 so far in 2026, compared to a broader clean-cooking average of around USD 4. But the market dynamics underpinning that premium are shifting on multiple fronts.
Concentration drives a pricing premium
On the bearish side, higher oil prices are reducing demand for long-haul flights and compressing offsetting obligations. December 2026 CORSIA futures have already fallen to USD 13.10 (from a high of USD 18.10). In addition, more host countries could begin issuing letters of authorization (LoAs) for other high-quality projects, bringing additional eligible supply to market.2
More significantly, the EU recently published a concept note that would bar European airlines from using cookstove credits that fail to meet the UN’s quality threshold for nonrenewable biomass, as defined under the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism. MSCI Carbon Markets project ratings already apply similar benchmarks to assess credit quality. However, the EU proposal would go further by imposing a volumetric constraint on credits issued under historically lower thresholds.
Potential supply impact is significant
Our analysis suggests that if credits from projects above the threshold are fully disqualified for EU CORSIA buyers, more than 90% of available cookstove supply could be removed (subject to LoAs). A more flexible implementation, in which credits below the threshold are retained, could still reduce supply by around 50%.
These changes will take time. Host countries have been slow to issue LoAs and the EU proposals remain at an early stage. But the direction is clear: If the bar for accessing CORSIA demand rises, the premium for eligible cookstove credits is likely to widen.
Data as of April 22, 2026. Source: MSCI Carbon Markets
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1 CORSIA (the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) is a global market-based mechanism established by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to limit net carbon emissions from international flights.
2 Letters of authorization are government-issued documents through which a host country formally consents to a carbon project’s credits being used internationally under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. They confirm a corresponding adjustment will be applied to avoid double-counting of emission reductions.
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