Keeping Up with Evolving Trade Dynamics
The Trump administration has announced its intention to impose trade tariffs on several countries. A potential response from these nations could be retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. As investors review their portfolio strategies, a key element will be understanding which market segments are most exposed to potential tariff-related disruptions.
In a recent post, we used MSCI Economic Exposure data to analyze company revenue streams across the destination markets for their exports. Our findings suggested that, in terms of absolute U.S.-dollar revenues, Japan, Germany, Canada, the U.K. and China are among the most exposed to U.S.-initiated tariffs. Conversely, the U.S. itself could be most vulnerable to countertariffs from these same five countries. Below, we provide an interactive chart offering more granular insights to help investors track and adapt to evolving trade dynamics.
How to interact with this plot : Use the drop-down menu to select between U.S.-initiated tariffs and countertariffs. Click on a particular country to highlight the corresponding sectors and then select the sector of interest to highlight the sub-industry exposure. The radio button may be used to switch between absolute U.S.-dollar revenue and relative revenue exposure (vs. total country revenue).
Countries and sub-industries exposed to tariffs and countertariffs
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Scenario Analysis: Tariffs and a Strong US dollar
Monetary policy, strong U.S. growth and global uncertainty could lead to U.S.-dollar strength. We highlight this scenario, using the MSCI Macro-Finance Model, to help multi-asset-class investors assess the potential impact of tariffs and a stronger U.S. dollar on their portfolios.
Tariff-ied Markets: What Investors Need to Know
Trade tensions are rising — what does this mean for investors? MSCI’s Abhishek Gupta and Thomas Verbraken discuss the latest tariff developments, their potential impact on inflation and interest rates and how they could reshape market dynamics in 2025 and beyond.
Higher Tariffs Ahead? Who’s Most at Risk
Combining economic-exposure and geospatial data can help global equity investors gain a clearer picture of which firms and industries may feel the fallout if higher tariffs materialize.
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