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Stress testing US-China trade wars 

Amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tension, we have updated our stress test to consider three scenarios for how the situation could unfold — and their impact on currency, bond and equity markets around the world.

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Stress testing Brexit: Deal or no deal? 

Brexit has roiled markets since U.K. voters chose “leave” in the June 2016 referendum. We used our stress-testing model to examine how markets could react to deal and no-deal scenarios.

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Home bias in fixed income: Has it helped or hurt? 

Has global diversification historically helped reduce risk in the fixed-income portfolios of U.S. defined-benefit (DB) pension plans? Our backtests show that globalizing bond allocations would have increased risk measured relative to a liability benchmark. For such plans, home bias in bond portfolios would have reduced active risk over the period of our study.