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Jahiz Barlas

Research and Insights

Articles by Jahiz Barlas

    Scenarios, Stress Tests and Strategies for 2016

    Research Report | Jan 19, 2016 | Raghu Suryanarayanan , Thomas Verbraken , Jesse Phillips , Roman Kouzmenko , Carlo Acerbi , Jahiz Barlas , Mehmet Bayraktar , Andrei Morozov , Remy Briand

    Heading into 2016, MSCI examined 12 stress points globally to be used in quantifying the effect on portfolios of a range of shifts in markets, liquidity and the macroeconomy. These stress points include the prospect of additional interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, weakness in the eurozone and a deceleration in Chinese economic growth.

    Stress Testing a China Hard Landing

    Research Report | Oct 23, 2015 | Zsolt Simon , Raghu Suryanarayanan , Carlo Acerbi , Jahiz Barlas , Oleg Ruban , Thomas Verbraken

    The persistent decline in Chinese equities and commodity prices this summer renewed investor concerns about a possible economic hard landing in the Asian giant.

    Research Spotlight - Understanding Macroeconomic Risk and its Impact on Asset Allocation - October 2014

    Research Report | Oct 2, 2014 | Raghu Suryanarayanan , Katalin Varga , Kurt Winkelmann , Abhishek Gupta , Altaf Kassam , Attila Agod , Jahiz Barlas , Ludger Hentschel

    Starting in 2012, MSCI Research began exploring the impact of macroeconomic events on asset valuation and strategic asset allocation. The white papers summarized in this Research Spotlight provide the core findings in a continuing series, and are the basis of our growing suite of ‘macro models.’ For each paper you will find the full title, the credited authors, a short abstract, and a quick hyperlink to the full publication in our Research Library.

    China: Hard Landing or Gentle Descent?

    Research Report | Sep 9, 2014 | Raghu Suryanarayanan , Katalin Varga , Jahiz Barlas , Kurt Winkelmann

    Investors have expressed concerns about an imminent hard landing in China and potential long-term effects on both global growth and global equity returns. The MSCI Macroeconomic Model forecasts indicate that an imminent hard landing is unlikely: GDP growth in China could meet the official target of 7.5% by the end of the year. Moreover, the MSCI Asset Pricing Model indicates that Chinese real growth risk is a small contributor to long-term global equity risk. In addition, our models indicate...