OneTrust Cookie Consent

Navigation

  • Skip to Content
  • Client Log In
  • Investor relations
  • Sustainability Institute
  • Subscribe
  • Contact us
  • Careers
  • Region
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Client Log In
  • MSCI ONE
  • MSCI Client Support Site
  • Barra PortfolioManager
  • BarraOne
  • MSCI ESG Manager
  • MSCI ESG Direct
  • Global Index Lens
  • MSCI Real Assets Analytics Portal
  • RiskManager 3
  • CreditManager
  • RiskManager 4
  • Index Monitor
  • MSCI Datscha
  • MSCI Real Capital Analytics
  • Private i
  • Total Plan/Caissa
  • MSCI Wealth Manager (Fabric)
  • MSCI Carbon Markets
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Region
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
Navigation

Navigation Menu

  • Our Clients
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Our Clients
    • Asset Managers
      • Featured

        Insights on MSCI One
    • Asset Owners
      • Featured

        Institutional Client Designed Indexes (iCDIs)
    • Banks
      • Featured

        Total Portfolio Footprinting
    • Corporates
      • Featured

        ESG Trends to Watch
    • Hedge Funds
      • Featured

        Factor Models
    • Insurance Companies
      • Featured

        Total Portfolio Footprinting
    • Wealth Managers
      • Featured

        Visualizing Investment Data
  • Our Solutions
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Our Solutions
    • Analytics
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Analytics
      • Analytics Overview
      • Risk Management
      • AI Portfolio Insights
      • Multi-asset Class Factor Models
      • Quantitative Investment Solutions
      • Fixed Income Analytics
      • Portfolio Management
      • Crowding Solutions
      • Regulatory Solutions
      • Managed Solutions
    • Climate Investing
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Climate Investing
      • Climate Investing Overview
      • Featured

        Implied Temperature Rise
      • Featured

        Trends 2025
      • Biodiversity
      • Carbon Markets
      • GeoSpatial Asset Intelligence
      • Portfolio Sustainability Insights
      • Real Estate Climate Solutions
    • Sustainable Investing
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Sustainable Investing
      • Sustainable Investing Overview
      • Featured

        Trends 2025
      • ESG Fund Ratings and Climate Search Tool
        • Featured

          ESG and Climate Funds in Focus
      • ESG Ratings
        • Featured

          What is ESG
      • Impact Solutions
        • Featured

          Role of Capital in the Net-Zero Revolution
      • Sustainability Reporting Services
      • Sustainability and Climate Regulatory Toolkit
        • Featured

          Role of Capital in the Net-Zero Revolution
    • Factor Investing
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Factor Investing
      • Factor Investing Overview
      • Featured

        MSCI Japan Equity Factor Model
      • Equity Factor Models
      • FactorLab
      • MSCI FaCS
      • Factor Indexes
    • Fixed Income
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Fixed Income
      • Fixed Income Overview
      • Fixed Income Analytics
      • Fixed Income Indexes
    • Private Capital
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Private Capital
      • Private Capital Overview
      • Featured

        Private Capital Benchmarks
      • Private i
      • Total Plan Manager (formerly Caissa)
      • Emissions Footprinting
      • Private Capital Indexes
      • Private Company Data Connect
    • Real Assets
      • Go back to Our Solutions
      • Real Assets
      • Real Assets Overview
      • Featured

        Real Estate Market Size
      • INCANS
      • Index Intel
      • Portfolio Services
      • Property Intel
      • Private Real Assets Indexes
      • Real Capital Analytics
    • Wealth Management
  • Indexes
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Indexes
    • Featured

      Index Education
    • Featured

      Underlying Exchange Traded Products
    • Indexes Overview
    • By Category
      • Go back to Indexes
      • By Category
      • By Category Overview
      • Climate
      • Market Cap
      • Fixed Income
      • Client-Designed
      • Sustainability
      • Factor
      • Thematic
        • Featured

          Thematic Exposure Standard
      • Private Real Assets
      • Private Capital
    • Tools
      • Go back to Indexes
      • Tools
      • Tools Overview
      • Index Monitor
      • MSCI Index API
      • MSCI IndexMetrics®
      • Index Data Modules
      • Equity Index Constituents
      • Fixed Income Index Constituents
      • Index Profile Tool
      • Direct Indexing
    • Resources
      • Go back to Indexes
      • Resources
      • Resources Overview
      • Communications
      • Education
      • Equity Factsheets
      • Derivatives
      • Methodology
      • Performance
      • Regulation
  • Research & Insights
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Research & Insights
    • Featured

      Navigating Uncertainty: Tariff Implications
    • Featured

      In Focus
    • Research & Insights
      • Go back to Research & Insights
      • Research & Insights
      • Research & Insights Overview
      • Carbon Markets
      • Climate
      • Equities
      • Factor Investing
      • Fixed Income
      • Multi-Asset Class
      • Private Capital
      • Real Estate
      • Sustainability
    • Events
      • Go back to Research & Insights
      • Events
      • Events Overview
      • Featured

        Upcoming climate events
      • On Demand
  • Discover MSCI
    • Go back to Main Menu
    • Discover MSCI
    • About Us
      • Featured

        2022 Annual Report
    • Technology
      • Go back to Discover MSCI
      • Technology
      • Technology Overview
      • Data Explorer
      • Developer Community
      • Technology and Data
    • Corporate Responsibility
      • Go back to Discover MSCI
      • Corporate Responsibility
      • Corporate Responsibility Overview
      • Enabling Sustainable Investing
      • Environmental Sustainability
      • Governance Practices
      • Social Practices
      • Sustainability Reports and Policies
    • Inclusion & Belonging
    • Media Room
    • Our Leadership
      • Featured

        Henry A. Fernandez
    • Recognition
  • Client Log In
  • Investor relations
  • Sustainability Institute
  • Subscribe
  • Contact us
  • Careers
  • Region
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Client Log In
  • MSCI ONE
  • MSCI Client Support Site
  • Barra PortfolioManager
  • BarraOne
  • MSCI ESG Manager
  • MSCI ESG Direct
  • Global Index Lens
  • MSCI Real Assets Analytics Portal
  • RiskManager 3
  • CreditManager
  • RiskManager 4
  • Index Monitor
  • MSCI Datscha
  • MSCI Real Capital Analytics
  • Private i
  • Total Plan/Caissa
  • MSCI Wealth Manager (Fabric)
  • MSCI Carbon Markets
  • Go back to Main Menu
  • Region
  • China
  • India
  • Japan

Main Search

Popular searches:
ACWI Research ESG Factor Investment Insights Gallery Asset Owners
Might interest you:
Are Bonds and Equities Finding Harmony Once Again?

Extended Viewer

 

Are Bonds and Equities Finding Harmony Once Again?

 

Juan Sampieri and Andy Sparks
August 17, 2023

How have the sharp swings in inflation over the past few years impacted the return relationship between U.S. bonds and equities?

For the 20 years prior to the onset of the COVID pandemic, bonds offered important diversification benefits to investors with multi-asset-class portfolios, tending to rise in value when equities fell. During the first year of the pandemic, market volatility soared, but once again bond returns tended to move in the opposite direction to equities. Notably, inflation remained relatively stable during this period, albeit a bit below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Enter historic levels of inflation

The interplay between bonds and equities underwent an abrupt change between 2021 and early 2023, a period marked by the highest rates of inflation in 40 years. Rather than returns being negatively correlated (stock prices come down, bond prices go up), bonds and equities tended to move in the same direction. Bonds did not act as an anchor, but as a dead weight, and some investors began to question bonds’ diversification benefits.

Between March 2023 and early August, the bond-equity relationship again shifted, this time with a slight tendency for returns to move in opposite directions. And while this relationship was weaker than before 2021, bonds' stabilizing impact became more evident in this period of receding inflation.

Investors have breathed a sigh of relief this year as inflation inched closer to the Fed's target. With inflation potentially back under control, bonds could regain their reputation as portfolio diversifiers, serving as hedges against equity-market volatility.1

Will bonds start offering diversification again?

U.S. equity returns are represented by the MSCI USA Index, while returns of U.S. government bonds are represented by the MSCI U.S. Government Bond Index. The yellow lines represent the line of best fit between returns. Inflation is represented by the one-year U.S. consumer price index (%).


1 According to MSCI’s Macro-Finance Model, the Fed’s credibility stabilizes long-term inflation risk, which in turn drives the bond-equity correlation negative.

Related content

Bond Performance in 2023: A Midsummer Reflection

The good news for bond investors is that year-to-date U.S. returns have been positive. But bond returns were not as good compared to inflation, and bonds have continued to lag equities.

Explore more

Macro Scenarios: Resilient US Economy but Downside Risks Loom

Investor sentiment has improved since the recent banking turmoil, and a soft landing for the U.S. economy seems possible. But there is geographic fragmentation, with China’s post-lockdown recovery potentially stalling. What could it mean for markets?

Read more

Has Inflation Affected the Bond-Equity Relationship?

The sharp rise in inflation over the past year and a half, combined with growing concern over the U.S. economy’s strength, may prompt investors to rethink basic assumptions underlying portfolios comprised of bonds, equities and other asset classes.

Learn more

msci logo
  • Terms of Use
  • Legal
  • Modern Slavery Statement
  • Privacy notice
  • Index regulation
  • Locations
  • Cookies
  • Use of ISO standards
  • Site map
Subscribe Contact us
© 2025 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved

UtmAnalytics