Where Next in Terms of Global Growth?
While most countries’ real GDP growth was buffeted in 2020 by the COVID-19 pandemic, the emerging market & developing economies were less affected (-3.3%) than advanced ones (-5.8%). We also observed better relative performance from emerging markets, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index outperforming the MSCI World Index in 2020.
Emerging markets have shown resilience. And, encouraged by vaccine breakthroughs and the new U.S. administration’s approach to international relations, some investors have begun to look upon globalization with less skeptical eyes. The IMF has forecasted an average annualized growth rate of 5.1% for emerging economies over the next five years while advanced economies’ growth will remain stable at around a 2.5% annually.
1 Source: International Monetary Fund.
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