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Death of Diesel: A Scenario Analysis of Which Auto Makers Will Pay Higher Emissions Fines

Regulators are considering banning diesel cars in various countries and cities to lower levels of toxic nitrogen oxides. This trend has already impacted auto markets in Europe. Declining diesel vehicle sales reflect a shrinking trust in customers who fear increased restrictions on use and lower re-sale values.  This analysis assumed a moderate 30% decline in diesel vehicles in a company‚Äôs fleet  by 2021 and modelled two different scenarios. Under scenario 1, customers buy petrol models in place of diesel models of the same carmaker. Under scenario 2, customers buy petrol models and vehicles with alternative drives instead of diesel models. We projected future fleet emissions based on fuel efficiency improvements in diesel and petrol fleets of the three previous years.