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Not Every Bank Is at Risk from CRE Lending

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Not Every Bank Is at Risk from CRE Lending

Mar 7, 2024

Commercial-property prices are falling, and lenders, investors and especially regulators are fearful of the impact on the broader financial system. The risks in the system today are not the same as those seen during other crisis events, however. Making the assumption that all banks will face the same challenges as in other downturns may lead one down a path to bad decisions.

In this paper, we identify where the sharpest price pain is currently being felt in U.S. commercial real estate, and examine the exposures of international, national and regional/local banks as well as other key sources of financing.

Banks Not the Only Source of Financing for CBD Offices

The chart shows the composition of lenders in the CBD-office market of the U.S. from 2012 to 2023.

Data as of Feb. 26, 2024. 2023 shows data through third quarter only. Source: MSCI Mortgage Debt Intelligence


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Research authors

  • Jim Costello, Executive Director, MSCI Research
  • Alexis Maltin, Vice President, MSCI Research

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