Macro Scenarios in Focus: Assessing Portfolio Resilience to AI and Geopolitical Risks

Two forces dominate the current macroeconomic outlook: how AI reshapes the economy and what path inflation takes after a fragile Persian Gulf ceasefire. AI could deliver a productivity dividend, raising the economy’s sustainable growth path, or displace labor faster than it can be redeployed. The combatants could reach a durable ceasefire, or the conflict could re-escalate into another energy shock. We build three scenarios and translate each into a set of top-down macro shocks. We then sharpen them with bottom-up emerging-risk signals — the MSCI AI Disruption Potential dataset and metrics derived from MSCI Supply Chain Intelligence —  that capture where each shock concentrates. With this combination of shocks, we stress test a global diversified portfolio. (Unlock the interactive chart below to drill down into various asset classes, align the asset allocation to your portfolio and modify the base currency.)

We examined two ends of the spectrum for AI’s economic impact. In the scenario of an AI productivity boom, AI is adopted across the economy faster than expected, raising productivity and lifting the sustainable growth path without adding to inflation.¹ The gains come via faster real growth and price pressures stay close to baseline. The scenario of a disorderly AI transition presents the mirror image: Automation displaces labor faster than the economy can redeploy it, and falling labor income drives a demand-led recession.² The damage falls unevenly on the most AI-exposed firms, and because displaced workers are slow to retrain, growth returns only slowly toward its pre-shock path. 

Even if the attacks in the Persian Gulf cease for an extended amount of time, inflation may prove stickier than markets expect. Inflation is already elevated, and the energy-driven jump is unlikely to unwind quickly even if a deal resumes flows through the Strait of Hormuz.³ The scenario of a supply-side squeeze stress tests the tail: The combatants fail to reach a lasting ceasefire, energy prices rebound toward their conflict peak and a central bank focused on price stability has little room to ease into the shock. 

We translated each scenario into a path for growth and inflation. The AI productivity boom lifts growth durably above baseline; inflation stays near baseline early and drifts modestly above it as growth runs hot. Both downside scenarios reach their lowest growth within the first year, with the disorderly AI transition falling furthest — into negative territory. Inflation falls in the demand-led disorderly AI transition but spikes toward 5% in the supply-side squeeze before receding.

GDP and inflation paths were generated with the MSCI Macro-Finance Analyzer using the MSCI baseline scenario as of March 31, 2026. These are not forecasts, but hypothetical narratives of different macroeconomic scenarios. 

The scenarios are macro narratives, but the resulting losses may concentrate in specific firms. Can we anticipate which firms are more exposed to these risks? Two episodes in early 2026 let us test it directly: The late-January software sell-off stood in for disorderly AI transition, and the first week of the Iran war for the energy shock.

We ranked stocks in the MSCI ACWI Investable Market Index (IMI) by MSCI emerging-risk signals. The AI Disruption Potential dataset scores how exposed each company is to automation, while Supply Chain Intelligence data is employed to measure impact on a company’s supply chains and gross profits if the Strait of Hormuz closes.⁴ We then examined whether the most exposed stocks did worse when the risk hit.⁵ In both episodes, more-exposed stocks underperformed on average. During the late-January software sell-off, the most AI-exposed quintile underperformed the least exposed by about 8 percentage points. In the first week of the Iran war, the most-Hormuz-exposed firms trailed by about 5 percentage points.

Average factor return by signal quintile; country-by-industry sub-portfolios from the MSCI ACWI IMI, shown net of the index return. Toggle between the AI-disruption view (late-January 2026 software sell-off) and the supply-chain view (Iran war's first week).  

We shape each scenario's equity shock with the matching signal. In the disorderly AI transition, the shock hits the most automatable industries — sized to their late-January software-sell-off declines — across the U.S., developed markets ex-U.S. and emerging markets. In the supply-side squeeze, the Strait of Hormuz analysis lifts energy producers across the three regions, while the cyclicals most exposed to energy costs — airlines, autos and capital goods — fall, scaled to a renewed shock hitting depleted buffers.⁶

To assess the scenarios’ impact on multi-asset-class portfolios, we used MSCI’s predictive stress-testing framework and applied the shocks from the table below to a hypothetical global diversified portfolio, consisting of global equities, U.S. bonds and real estate.⁷

Assumptions about risk-factor shocks are informed by the MSCI Macro-Finance Analyzer and by analysis of historical data and judgment. Breakeven inflation (BEI) is measured in basis points (bps). This is not a forecast, but a hypothetical narrative of how the scenarios could affect multi-asset-class portfolios. 

The disorderly AI transition hits the software complex hardest: Software and IT services fall furthest in the U.S. and Canada (U.S. software −26%, IT services −23%), while semiconductors and hardware decline far less; and pharmaceuticals, oil and gas and independent power hold up or rise. The AI productivity boom is close to the mirror image — led by IT services, software and semiconductors in the U.S. and Canada.

The supply-side squeeze shifts the damage to energy-intensive and cyclical industries — semiconductors, electronic equipment, autos and airlines across the U.S., Japan and Germany — while oil and gas producers gain sharply.

The stress test is applied to the MSCI ACWI Index. The table shows results for select countries and GICS industries. Stress-test results as of July 1, 2026.