Canada's Return Picture: A Patchwork, Not a Pattern
Mentioned in this quick take:
When the dispersion in property-type returns in Canada peaked between 2019 and 2023, allocation did most of the work. Pick industrial over office, and the specific city or asset mattered less. That market is behind us.
The chart sizes each city-sector combination by its allocation in the MSCI/REALPAC Canada Annual Property Index and shades it by how its latest 12-month total return compares to the rest. Two things stand out. First, there's no dominant theme. Montreal's leaders are retail and residential, with office and industrial lagging. Toronto is carried by office and retail. Calgary's strongest segments are industrial and retail. Vancouver leans on retail and office.
Second, only one property type is positive everywhere: retail. Office, industrial and residential all show a mix of strong and weak results depending on the city. That patchwork is the story. After a cycle where the property-type call alone could carry a portfolio, returns are now being driven market by market, asset by asset. Space-market fundamentals and selection are doing more of the lift than top-down sector allocation. For investors who got used to expressing a view through sector weighting, that's a meaningfully different market to underwrite.
12-month total returns through Q2 2026, MSCI/REALPAC Canada Annual Property Index. City-sector combinations sized for allocation. RoC is Rest of Canada.
Subscribe todayto have insights delivered to your inbox.
Real Capital Analytics
Transparent, proprietary intelligence across global private real estate markets connecting investors, funds, assets and transactions on one platform.
Breaking Free of Market Concentration
U.S. equities hold close to two-thirds of world market value. See why GDP weighting — and an under-owned Canada — offer a governance-defensible way to break the concentration.
Charting private assets
Stay ahead of private markets with the latest trends in performance and capital dynamics.
The content of this page is for informational purposes only and is intended for institutional professionals with the analytical resources and tools necessary to interpret any performance information. Nothing herein is intended to recommend any product, tool or service. For all references to laws, rules or regulations, please note that the information is provided “as is” and does not constitute legal advice or any binding interpretation. Any approach to comply with regulatory or policy initiatives should be discussed with your own legal counsel and/or the relevant competent authority, as needed.