OneTrust Cookie Consent

导航

  • 跳转到内容
  • Client Log In
  • Investor relations
  • Sustainability Institute
  • Subscribe
  • Contact us
  • Careers
  • Region
  • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu main-menu-texts.main-menu
  • Client Log In
  • MSCI ONE
  • MSCI Client Support Site
  • Barra PortfolioManager
  • BarraOne
  • MSCI ESG Manager
  • MSCI ESG Direct
  • Global Index Lens
  • MSCI Real Assets Analytics Portal
  • RiskManager 3
  • CreditManager
  • RiskManager 4
  • Index Monitor
  • MSCI Datscha
  • MSCI Real Capital Analytics
  • Private i
  • Total Plan/Caissa
  • MSCI Wealth Manager (Fabric)
  • MSCI Carbon Markets
  • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu main-menu-texts.main-menu
  • Region
  • China
  • India
  • Japan
导航

导航菜单

  • Our Clients
    • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu main-menu-texts.main-menu
    • Our Clients
    • Asset Managers
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Insights on MSCI One
    • Asset Owners
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Institutional Client Designed Indexes (iCDIs)
    • Banks
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Total Portfolio Footprinting
    • Corporates
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        ESG Trends to Watch
    • Hedge Funds
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Factor Models
    • Insurance Solutions for Companies
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Total Portfolio Footprinting
    • MSCI Wealth — Unlock portfolio personalization at scale
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Visualizing Investment Data
  • Our Solutions
    • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu main-menu-texts.main-menu
    • Our Solutions
    • 分析
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Our Solutions
      • 分析
      • 分析 main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • Risk Management
      • AI Portfolio Insights
      • Multi-Asset Class Factor Models
      • Quantitative Investment Solutions
      • Fixed income analytics
      • 投资组合管理 >>
      • Crowding Solutions
      • Analytics Regulatory Reporting Solutions
      • 定制化服务
    • Climate Solutions
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Our Solutions
      • Climate Solutions
      • Climate Solutions main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Implied Temperature Rise
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Trends 2025
      • Nature and Biodiversity: Identify and measure portfolio impacts and risks
      • MSCI Carbon Markets
      • MSCI GeoSpatial Asset Intelligence
      • Portfolio Sustainability Insights
      • Real Estate Climate Solutions
    • Sustainable Investing
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Our Solutions
      • Sustainable Investing
      • Sustainable Investing main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Trends 2025
      • ESG Fund Ratings and Climate Search Tool
        • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

          ESG and Climate Funds in Focus
      • ESG Ratings
        • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

          What is ESG
      • Impact Solutions
        • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

          Role of Capital in the Net-Zero Revolution
      • Sustainability Reporting Services
      • Sustainability and Climate Regulatory Toolkit
        • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

          Role of Capital in the Net-Zero Revolution
    • Factor Investing
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Our Solutions
      • Factor Investing
      • Factor Investing main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        MSCI Japan Equity Factor Model
      • Equity Factor Models
      • MSCI FactorLab
      • MSCI FaCS
      • Factor Indexes
    • Fixed Income Solutions
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Our Solutions
      • Fixed Income Solutions
      • Fixed Income Solutions main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • Fixed income analytics
      • Index profiles: Fixed Income Indexes
    • Private Capital
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Our Solutions
      • Private Capital
      • Private Capital main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Private Capital Benchmarks
      • Private i Platform
      • Total Plan Manager (formerly Caissa)
      • Emissions Footprinting for Private Equity and Debt
      • Private Capital Indexes
      • Private Company Data Connect
    • Real Estate Investing
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Our Solutions
      • Real Estate Investing
      • Real Estate Investing main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Real Estate Market Size
      • Income Analytics
      • MSCI Real Estate Global Intel
      • Real Estate: Portfolio Services
      • Property Intel
      • 房地产 资料单张 搜索
      • Real Capital Analytics
    • Wealth Management
  • Indexes
    • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu main-menu-texts.main-menu
    • Indexes
    • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

      Index Education
    • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

      Underlying Exchange Traded Products
    • Indexes Overview
    • By Category
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Indexes
      • By Category
      • By Category main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • Climate Indexes
      • Market Cap Indexes
      • Index profiles: Fixed Income Indexes
      • Client-Designed Indexes
      • Sustainability Indexes
      • Factor Indexes
      • Thematic Investing
        • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

          Thematic Exposure Standard
      • Performance Indexes
      • Private Capital Indexes
    • Index Tools
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Indexes
      • Index Tools
      • Index Tools main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • Index Tools: Index Monitor
      • MSCI Index API
      • IndexMetrics
      • Index Data Modules
      • Equity Index Constituents
      • Fixed Income Index Constituents
      • Index Profile Tool
      • Direct Indexing
    • Index Resources
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Indexes
      • Index Resources
      • Index Resources main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • Index Communications
      • Index Education
      • 股票资料单张 搜索
      • Derivatives
      • Index methodology
      • Index Performance
      • Index Regulation
  • Research & Insights
    • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu main-menu-texts.main-menu
    • Research & Insights
    • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

      Navigating Uncertainty: Tariff Implications
    • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

      In Focus
    • Research and Insights
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Research & Insights
      • Research and Insights
      • Research and Insights main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • Carbon Markets
      • Climate
      • Equities
      • Factor Investing
      • Fixed Income
      • Multi-Asset Class
      • Private Capital
      • Real Estate
      • Sustainability
    • Events
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Research & Insights
      • Events
      • Events main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Upcoming climate events
      • On Demand
  • Discover MSCI
    • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu main-menu-texts.main-menu
    • Discover MSCI
    • About Us
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        2022 Annual Report
    • Technology
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Discover MSCI
      • Technology
      • Technology main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • Data Explorer
      • Developer Community
      • Powering Better Portfolios through Technology and Data
    • Corporate Responsibility
      • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu Discover MSCI
      • Corporate Responsibility
      • Corporate Responsibility main-menu-texts.public-site.submenu-parent-link-postfix
      • Enabling Sustainable Investing
      • Environmental Sustainability
      • Governance Practices
      • Social Practices
      • Sustainability Reports and Policies
    • Inclusion & Belonging
    • 公司公告
    • Our Leadership
      • main-menu-texts.default-featured-content-label

        Henry A. Fernandez
    • Recognition
  • Client Log In
  • Investor relations
  • Sustainability Institute
  • Subscribe
  • Contact us
  • Careers
  • Region
  • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu main-menu-texts.main-menu
  • Client Log In
  • MSCI ONE
  • MSCI Client Support Site
  • Barra PortfolioManager
  • BarraOne
  • MSCI ESG Manager
  • MSCI ESG Direct
  • Global Index Lens
  • MSCI Real Assets Analytics Portal
  • RiskManager 3
  • CreditManager
  • RiskManager 4
  • Index Monitor
  • MSCI Datscha
  • MSCI Real Capital Analytics
  • Private i
  • Total Plan/Caissa
  • MSCI Wealth Manager (Fabric)
  • MSCI Carbon Markets
  • main-menu-texts.back-to-parent-menu main-menu-texts.main-menu
  • Region
  • China
  • India
  • Japan

Main Search

Popular searches:
ACWI Research ESG Factor Investment Insights Gallery Asset Owners
Might interest you:
Scenario Analysis: Surging Oil and Energy Prices

Extended Viewer

 

Scenario Analysis: Surging Oil and Energy Prices

 

Thomas Verbraken
十月 18, 2024

Institutional investors might be concerned that escalating unrest in the Middle East could push oil prices higher, as geopolitical risk has once again come into focus for this group. A sustained rise in energy costs may fuel inflation and weigh on economic growth, affecting portfolios. In this quick take, we use the MSCI Macro-Finance Analyzer to evaluate the impact of two energy-price shocks on the U.S. economy and financial markets.1

  • 30% energy-price shock: Energy-price increases lead to higher inflation, with growth slightly below the baseline in subsequent years. U.S. equities decline by 5%, the Treasury yield curve shifts up by 30 basis points (bps) and five-year U.S. breakeven inflation rises by 50 bps.
  • 60% energy-price shock and shallow recession: A larger energy-price shock, accompanied by a shallow recession, results in a 14% sell-off in U.S. equities. The one- and 10-year Treasury yields increase by 40 and 50 bps, respectively, while five-year U.S. breakeven inflation rises by 85 bps.

We used MSCI’s predictive stress-testing framework to propagate the broad market shocks from the MSCI Macro-Finance Analyzer to a global diversified portfolio consisting of global equities and U.S. bonds and real estate.2 Such a portfolio could decline by 3% under the 30% price shock and by 8% under the 60% price shock. All asset classes shown in the exhibit, except energy stocks and inflation-linked bonds, lose under both of our scenarios as a supply-driven energy shock leads to a rise in inflation and a positive correlation between equities and nominal Treasury bonds.3

The author thanks Will Baker for his contributions to this quick take.

Two scenarios for an energy-price shock

GDP and inflation paths were generated with the MSCI Macro-Finance Analyzer using the MSCI baseline scenario as of June 30, 2024.

Portfolio impact under our scenarios

Portfolio impact of the scenarios based on market data as of Oct. 9, 2024. The above stress-test results capture the effect of instantaneous repricing of the assets. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, MSCI


1 We used the MSCI Macro-Finance Model to model different trajectories for the U.S. economy. The MSCI baseline as well as the stressed macroeconomic scenarios can be accessed via these links: 30% energy-price shock and 60% energy-price shock and shallow recession.

2 Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are represented by the iBoxx TIPS Inflation-Linked Index provided by S&P Dow Jones Indices. U.S. Treasurys, equities and corporate bonds are represented by MSCI indexes. Private equity is represented by model portfolios. U.S. real estate is represented by the MSCI/PREA U.S. AFOE Quarterly Property Fund Index. The composite portfolio is 50% global equities (35% public and 15% private), 10% U.S. Treasurys, 10% TIPS, 10% U.S. investment-grade bonds, 10% U.S. high-yield bonds and 10% U.S. real estate.

3 The results are generated by using model correlations to propagate shocks to the portfolios, using MSCI's BarraOne®. MSCI clients can access the correlated BarraOne stress test here. A RiskMetrics® RiskManager® stress test can be downloaded from the MSCI Macro-Finance Analyzer (via the links above, by clicking the “Download” button).

Related content

Macro Scenarios in Focus: Hard-Landing Risks Keep Investors on Edge

After the Federal Reserve recently cut rates and indicated that further reductions were likely, the equity market rallied. But sell-offs in August and September signaled investor concerns about an economic slowdown. What are potential outcomes to consider?

Read more

Understanding Geopolitical Risk in Investments

Over the last 30 years, high geopolitical risk has been associated with lower equity returns and higher forecast volatilities. We show that measures of geopolitical risk have provided useful information beyond conventional measures of uncertainty.

Explore more

MSCI Macro Finance Analyzer

Evaluate the effect of different macro scenarios on long-term risk and expected return on your portfolios.

Download PDF

msci logo
  • Terms of Use
  • Legal
  • Modern Slavery Statement
  • Privacy notice
  • Index regulation
  • Locations
  • Cookies
  • Use of ISO standards
  • Site map
Subscribe Contact us
© 2025 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved

UtmAnalytics