Too Hot to Work?
Preview
Extreme heat is already affecting workers, companies and the broader economy — and rising temperatures could amplify these effects. This paper examines how heat exposure can translate into lower labor productivity and financial impacts, estimating losses across markets, sectors and MSCI ACWI Index companies and comparing that exposure with what companies disclose about adaptation.
Our modeling suggests that heat-related labor-productivity losses may equate to around 2% of global GDP today, rising to 3.3% under a high-emissions scenario over the next 75 years, with particularly high exposure in Asia-Pacific.
At the company level, around 81% of MSCI ACWI Index constituents show some estimated revenue impact today. As the chart shows, those impacts vary widely, with estimated losses exceeding 5% of revenue for some companies, particularly those with heat-exposed activities.
For investors, that variation matters: geography, workforce sensitivity and adaptation can help distinguish between companies that may look similar by sector or domicile but have very different underlying exposure.
Data as of Sept. 23, 2026. The chart compares modeled heat-related labor-productivity losses across MSCI ACWI Index constituents under current climate conditions and before physiological acclimatization. The vertical axis shows modeled losses as a percentage of company revenue, while the horizontal axis shows modeled USD losses on a logarithmic scale. The dashed line marks the 5% threshold; selected companies are labeled for context. Results represent modeled exposure rather than observed revenue losses. Source: MSCI Sustainability & Climate. MSCI Sustainability & Climate products and services are provided by MSCI Solutions LLC in the United States, MSCI Solutions (UK) Limited in the United Kingdom, MSCI Solutions (Deutschland) GmbH in the EU and certain other related entities.
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