Concentration Trends in the Nature-Based Carbon Market

A growing number of companies are turning to nature-based carbon credits to meet their net-zero ambitions — but the market isn’t as broad as it seems. In 2024, only 3% of MSCI ACWI Investable Market Index (IMI) companies retired such credits. Yet this small cohort accounted for 65% of disclosed retirements. In other words, just a handful of companies dominate capital flows into nature-based carbon projects.

These firms, including Microsoft Corp., Shell plc and JPMorgan Chase & Co., sourced credits from 228 projects across 32 countries, mostly focused on reforestation and tropical-forest protection. Combined, these projects cover over 20 million hectares — or an area twice the size of South Korea — with an estimated expenditure of USD 200 million.

Some companies go further, locking in forward deals at USD 40–50 per credit, three to five times the current market average. These premiums help capex-intensive projects get off the ground and secure future supply of high-integrity projects.

Not all credits are made equal, however, and integrity is the key differentiator. Just under 30% of the 228 projects carry an MSCI Carbon Project Rating of BBB+ indicating moderate to high quality. Quality is increasingly driving the voluntary carbon market as a whole. Our recent paper, 2025 State of Integrity in the Global Carbon-Credit Market, shows that the retirement of credits rated BBB or higher have increased by 25% since 2022, and higher-rated projects continue to achieve higher prices.

For investors, screening for nature-based carbon-credit usage goes beyond carbon accounting. It can reveal which companies are aligning with both net-zero and nature goals, and also signal exposure to potential transition risks and opportunities in the growing nature-positive economy.