Extended-lister
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Markets in Focus: Narrow Yield Spread and High Crowding Pressure Equities
Oct 3, 2023 Waman Virgaonkar , Hitendra D Varsani , Juan SampieriEquity Themes , Emerging Markets , Fixed Income , Factor Investing , Equity indexes
Learn MoreEclipsing equity and bond yields and high crowding may be signs of a vulnerable equity market. We compare equity/bond yield spreads in the major regional markets along with crowding in sectors and regions.
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Are Russian Stocks Worthless?
May 26, 2022 Michael Hayes , Tamas Hanis , Zoltan Sass Learn MoreInvestors in Russian securities have faced sizable hurdles trying to manage and value their positions. Our research of the CDS market suggests that Russian stocks are essentially worthless, in contrast to the prices listed on the Moscow Exchange.
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Russian Bonds: Rolling Back the Default Clock
May 4, 2022 Andy Sparks , Gabor Almasi Learn MoreThe Russian government’s decision on April 29 to pay holders of two dollar-denominated Russian sovereign bonds led to a major rally, encouraging some investors that Russia may avoid default. There are, however, more challenges ahead.
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As corporate-bond investors embrace decarbonization as a goal in portfolio construction and management and benchmark selection, the question arises whether decarbonization targets are at odds with other desirable index attributes, such as liquidity.
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Drivers of China Equities’ Sell-Off
Apr 20, 2022 Wei Xu , Shuo XuEmerging Markets , Global Investing , Equity Themes , Equity indexes
Learn MoreFollowing the recent sell-off in Chinese equities, global investors may have some concerns and questions about their China exposure. Have fundamentals changed? What role did the Russia-Ukraine war play? Which factors are important to keep an eye on?
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Fed Policy and the Threat of Stagflation
Apr 4, 2022 Daniel Szabo , Will Baker , Thomas Verbraken Learn MoreInvestors are increasingly focused on inflation and the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy. With the Russia-Ukraine war and resulting sanctions, they may also worry about slowing economic growth. We model three economic scenarios’ potential impact on markets.
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Factors in Focus: Disentangling Market Gyrations Through the War
Apr 1, 2022 Waman Virgaonkar , Hitendra D Varsani Learn MoreIt was a tale of two quarters in many ways. We analyze the effects of past and present military conflicts on factor investing to provide insights to investors seeking to build resilient portfolios.
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Which Factors Rose with the Price of Oil?
Mar 8, 2022 Jean-Maurice Ladure , Ashish Lodh Learn More -
Expectations of higher inflation dominated the market for U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities in 2021. We reviewed the performance of our agency-MBS model in 2021, to assess its accuracy and help investors manage MBS risk through what may be a volatile 2022.
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China’s Green-Bond Market: Growing Issuance and Historical Outperformance
Feb 24, 2022 Jian Chen , Joy Zhang Learn MoreChina’s green-bond market has grown rapidly in recent years and is now second in size only to the U.S. Understanding the reasons behind this market’s growth and performance may help investors as they consider incorporating Chinese green bonds in portfolios.
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中国已成为仅次于美国的全球第二大绿色债券发行国家。
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Latin American Equity Markets: The Lay of the Land
Feb 16, 2022 Raina Oberoi , Román Mendoza Learn MoreHow is Latin America different from other emerging markets? We analyze the influence of foreign direct investment; market performance; exposure to sectors and thematic investments; ESG and climate risks and opportunities and corporate-ownership structures.
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As the U.S. job market has begun to recover, so have consumer credit levels. The issuance of U.S. consumer asset-backed securities (ABS) had a strong bounce back in 2021. What drove this surge across ABS markets?
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Can managers take an active approach to systematically managing exposure of a corporate-bond portfolio to climate-transition risk? We investigate two different approaches to decarbonizing credit portfolios.
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How ‘Greenflation’ Could Impact Bond Returns
Jan 14, 2022 Daniel Szabo , Thomas Verbraken Learn MoreInvestors and policymakers are increasingly focused on the fact that a transition to a low-carbon economy could result in “greenflation,” which could put upward pressure on long-term interest rates and in turn lead to downward repricing of bond portfolios.
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Hotter Inflation Set Some Styles and Sectors on Fire
Jan 11, 2022 Ashish Lodh , Hitendra D Varsani Learn MoreWhether due to stimulus, deglobalization, decarbonization or an overheating economy, higher inflation could have an impact on style-factor and sector performance. We investigate this impact in the context of two potential economic-growth regimes.
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Higher Agency Loan-Size Limit: A Booster Shot in ARMs?
Jan 10, 2022 László Ábel Somlai , Miklós Vörös , Yihai Yu Learn MoreSecuritizations for U.S. agency adjustable-rate mortgages have declined since the 2008 global financial crisis. But could a loan-limit increase by the government-sponsored enterprises, boost issuance of agency-ARM mortgage-backed securities?
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Factors in Focus: Are Your Equity Styles Ahead of the Curve?
Jan 5, 2022 Waman Virgaonkar , Hitendra D Varsani Learn MoreIf economic expansion and higher inflation continue in 2022, interest rates could rise around the world. As investors re-evaluate equity portfolios, we look at factor-index performance in different U.S. interest-rate and yield-curve regimes.
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Which Companies Lost Most in Europe’s Lost Decade?
Dec 14, 2021 Anil Rao , Jean-Maurice Ladure Learn MoreIf uncertainties over deglobalization persists, the performance divide between Europe and the U.S. could widen further. Have European firms been more at risk, given they have had more international revenue than U.S. companies?
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Inflation watchers, aware of how COVID-19 led to trillions of dollars of stimulus, may want to note the longer-term shift toward deglobalization. As these forces collide, they may lead to rising global inflation and affect asset-allocation strategies.
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Spotlight on the Markets: Are Supply Chains the New Grinch
Dec 3, 2021 Ana Harris , Mehdi Alighanbari Learn MoreThe holiday season may only exacerbate supply-chain challenges affecting the availability and prices of goods. In this inaugural edition of Spotlight on the Markets, we analyze performance and how investors are working to rise to the occasion.
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Controlling Idiosyncratic Risk in Value Strategies
Nov 18, 2021 Waman Virgaonkar , Mehdi Alighanbari Learn MoreWe looked at ways to mitigate some of the performance drag of stock-specific risk on value strategies over the last decade by directly controlling for this risk without negatively affecting value-factor exposures or contributions.
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After Evergrande: Bond Liquidity of Chinese Property Developers
Nov 17, 2021 Daniel F. MolnarFixed Income , Risk Management , Global Investing
Learn MoreEvergrande, one of China’s largest and most indebted property developers, had a recent close brush with bankruptcy that generated considerable concern among global bond investors. In this time of distress, how has market liquidity responded?
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Can Green Spreads Uncover ESG's Influence on Bond Prices?
Nov 11, 2021 Greg Recine , Alexander Spray Learn MoreInvestors increasingly seek to build portfolios that have reduced exposure to climate-transition risk. How might these changes in investor behavior have affected prices in the corporate-bond market?
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Market fundamentals may not be significantly affected by new regulations in China. But, given the regulations’ focus on ESG-related issues, investors can use ESG data as they seek to identify risks and opportunities across industries and securities.
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How Climate Change Could Impact Credit Risk
Oct 20, 2021 Reka Janosik , Thomas VerbrakenESG Research , Fixed Income , Risk Management
Learn MoreInvestors are increasingly focused on gauging the risks related to climate change. We investigated how various climate scenarios could impact the credit risk of portfolios. In one scenario, 16% of investment-grade issuers could migrate to high yield.
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Could Factors Help Explain Asset-Level Real Estate Performance?
Oct 19, 2021 Bryan Reid , Fritz LouwReal Estate Investing , Factor Investing
Learn MoreFor real estate investors, property type and geography segmentations are the primary lens through which they measure and manage their portfolios. Testing five potential real estate style factors, however, were we able to better explain asset-level variation.
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How can investors help accelerate the net-zero transition? This was the central question at MSCI’s 2021 Global Investing Conference. We present the core takeaways from the two-day event, which featured senior corporate and investment thought leaders.
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Factors in Focus: Where’s the Value in Defensive Positioning?
Oct 1, 2021 Waman Virgaonkar , Hitendra D Varsani Learn MoreThroughout the third quarter, investors shifted attention to risks from inflation, tapering and potential interest-rate rises. We analyze global equities and the rotation toward defensive factors.
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We expand on our analysis of industry momentum to assess the persistence of a premium across different regions and the ability of a rules-based strategy to help investors as they seek to capture this premium.
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Regulatory changes in China have investors wondering how different industries could be affected. Evaluating the changes through a thematic lens can provide insight into the growth and crowding levels of megatrends, as industries react and evolve.
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How a Shift Toward Buybacks Affected Yield Strategies
Sep 3, 2021 Mehdi Alighanbari , Arihant JainGlobal Investing , Factor Investing
Learn MoreFor investors who use yield strategies to generate income, a steady stream of dividend payments is important. But with more companies using buybacks as a way to redistribute profits, investors may want to consider a more holistic view of income.
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Building Climate-Aware Factor Portfolios
Aug 31, 2021 Chirag Gosar , Padmakar Kulkarni Learn MoreFactor investing typically involves both security selection and alternative weighting based on security-level factor exposure. If such a strategy also needs to be climate-aware, what is the cost in terms of target-factor erosion?
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A Sector-Balanced Approach to China A Mega-Cap Exposure
Aug 27, 2021 Shuo Xu , Zhen Wei Learn MoreFor investors seeking exposure to the mega-cap segment of the China A market, a simple top-50 market-cap-weighted approach can lead to large sectoral biases. We explore how a balanced mega-cap approach may help.
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Given small-cap outperformance since March 2020, investors are asking how these stocks size up in terms of short-term valuation, sentiment and macro outlook? Longer term, might small caps help capture opportunities around thematic investing megatrends?
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The U.S. in the past year recorded the highest national house-price appreciation in recent decades. Does the run-up in home prices represent housing-bubble déjà vu? And what can MBS investors do to assess their mortgage credit risk?
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Assessing Private Infrastructure in a Multi-Asset-Class Portfolio
Aug 4, 2021 Michael Hayes , Yang LiuReal Estate Investing , Risk Management
Learn MorePrivate infrastructure is a popular element of institutional capital allocations, and increased focus on renewable or carbon-neutral infrastructure may mean significant new investment opportunities. What role could it play in a multi-asset-class portfolio?
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Fresh IPO Stocks and Indexes: In or Out?
Aug 3, 2021 Arihant Jain , Mehdi Alighanbari Learn MoreDepending on a number of factors, stocks may be added to indexes soon after a company’s IPO, which can affect asset managers who use the indexes to create and benchmark portfolios. We investigate the impact of IPO stocks on index performance.
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Managing Against MBS Indexes: A Duration Perspective
Jul 30, 2021 Yihai Yu , Anant BhatnagarFixed Income , Risk Management
Learn MoreMortgage-backed securities constitute a significant portion of fixed-income indexes. Managing MBS portfolios against these indexes depends heavily on an understanding of the dynamics of MBS duration, especially in volatile markets.
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Could Factors Have Explained Cryptocurrency Risk?
Jul 29, 2021 Daniel R. Barrera , Simon Minovitsky Learn MoreAs cryptocurrencies rise in popularity as investment vehicles, the need for standardized tools for this market increases as well. We created a multifactor model to measure whether factors important for equity markets were also important for crypto.
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Credit Strategies During the COVID-19 Crisis
Jul 27, 2021 Chenlu Zhou , Shuyin HuaFixed Income , Risk Management
Learn MoreShort-term credit spreads widened to a greater extent than long-term spreads during the March 2020 COVID-19 crisis. As a result, many U.S. corporate-issuer spread curves flattened or even inverted. What were the implications for corporate-bond investors?
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COVID-19’s Uneven Impact on Office Vacancy
Jul 26, 2021 Niel HarmseReal Estate Investing , Global Investing
Learn MoreWhat was the precise impact of the COVID-19 crisis on office properties? While the overall vacancy rate at the end of 2020 was lower than the previous cycle’s peak, the percentage of fully leased office buildings reached an all-time low.
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What Could a Rate Hike Mean for Portfolios?
Jul 22, 2021 Daniel Szabo , Thomas VerbrakenFixed Income , Risk Management
Learn MoreAlthough the Federal Reserve may not begin raising rates anytime soon, U.S. and global markets are scrutinizing the Fed’s communications about the likely course of policy actions. We consider three scenarios for the timing of policy responses.
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Hedging Inflation with Equities
Jul 16, 2021 Ashish Lodh , Jean-Maurice LadureGlobal Investing , Factor Investing
Learn MoreEquities have traditionally been viewed as a hedge against inflation, based on the assumption that companies’ revenues adjust for inflation over time. But what has been the short-term impact on equity portfolios?
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How Might Inflation Impact Funding Ratios?
Jul 14, 2021 Monika Szikszai , Thomas Verbraken , Puneet Kumar Learn MoreWe analyzed two multiperiod inflation scenarios to understand how the funding ratios of defined-benefit pension funds could evolve in each and what they could mean for a pension fund in terms of special contributions over the next 10 years.
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Active-Management Opportunities in a Disperse Market
Jul 13, 2021 Hitendra D Varsani , Rohit Gupta Learn MoreDisperse markets have historically provided opportunities for active managers to outperform their respective benchmarks. We showed that, based on historical trends, CSV helped shed light on identifying where the dispersion was greatest.
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What Can Liquidity Tell Us About ETF Prices?
Jul 9, 2021 Laszlo HolloIntegrated Risk Management , Risk Management
Learn MoreAs thematic equity ETFs have grown in popularity, concerns have been raised about their liquidity — especially when an ETF holds a large fraction of a constituent’s shares. How can ETF investors get a handle on this risk?
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Eyeing the Crowds from Multiple Perspectives
Jul 8, 2021 George Bonne , Jay Yao , Howard Zhang Learn MoreWe observed historically notable crowding across factors, industries and stocks through the first half of 2021. Examining crowding from multiple perspectives and incorporating multiple data elements provides investors a more holistic view.
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Chinese RMBS: A Way to Diversify Fixed-Income Portfolios?
Jul 7, 2021 Jian Chen , Yihai Yu Learn MoreThe market in Chinese residential mortgage-backed securities is growing, as global investors are eying the segment’s relatively high yield and potential for diversification, but seeking improved credit ratings and transparency in data and pricing.
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Factors in Focus: Go with the Flow?
Jul 1, 2021 Waman Virgaonkar , Hitendra D Varsani Learn MoreIn the latest edition of Factors in Focus, we look at flows into equity factor ETFs and whether it has been profitable, historically, to follow the money, along with our analysis of factor and factor-index performance over the second quarter.
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Unintended exposure to non-value factors was a large contributor to value’s period of underperformance. We investigate value-portfolio construction when controlling for these exposures while maintaining maximum exposure to value factors.
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Securitized Products’ LIBOR Transition Picking Up Pace
Jun 22, 2021 Vikram Tuteja , Yihai Yu Learn MoreIn 2021, there has been significant progress in the transition from the LIBOR reference rate to its replacement, SOFR. But investors in securitized products are grappling with the challenge of the LIBOR-SOFR transition and its impact on their analytics.
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CDS Fading as a Measure of Value in Emerging Markets
Jun 17, 2021 Zoltan Fekete , Reka Janosik Learn MoreCredit investors use spreads to compare relative value and risk. Studies of emerging-market sovereign debt have shown that credit-default swaps tended to be a better measure of value than spreads computed from bonds. But is it still the case?
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What Can Loan-Level Data Reveal About US Auto-Loan ABS?
Jun 15, 2021 Yini Yang , Joy ZhangFixed Income , Risk Management
Learn MoreU.S. regulators required issuers by Nov. 23, 2016, to disclose data on individual loans bundled into auto-loan asset-backed securities. We looked at whether incorporating loan-level data into our model could sharpen our analysis of this ABS segment.
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In today’s low-rate world, some investors shifted toward historically higher-yielding equities. For others, especially in the insurance industry, the greater risk limited their ability to do so. Was a minimum-variance equity approach a viable option?
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Momentum on a Value Hunt
Jun 2, 2021 Abhishek Gupta , Ashish LodhGlobal Investing , Factor Investing
Learn MoreMomentum, by definition, rotates into securities with recent outperformance. That said, investors who view value and momentum as contra-signals may have questions about the value-momentum convergence and the divergence of momentum and growth.
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During inflationary periods, equity investors, historically, have turned to gold as a hedge and diversifier. As the issue of inflation becomes more pressing, we ask whether cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, could have played a similar role.
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Real Estate’s Climate-Transition Risk: The Path to Net-Zero
May 25, 2021 Will RobsonReal Estate Investing , Risk Management , Global Investing
Learn MoreThe 2015 Paris Agreement seeks to keep the rise in global temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and many governments are aiming for 1.5°C through nationally determined contributions. What are the implications for real estate markets?
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The Pressure of the Crowd: Stress Testing Thematic Indexes
May 17, 2021 Anil Rao , Thomas VerbrakenEquity Themes , Risk Management , Global Investing
Learn MoreSome investors may be concerned about crowding within the fast-growing thematic-investing segment. Using MSCI’s stock-crowding model, we identify crowded themes and run stress tests to understand how they might respond to an equity sell-off.
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What Really Drove Value and Growth Fund Performance?
May 14, 2021 Abhishek Gupta , Guillermo Cano Learn MoreMany look to market-cap indexes when comparing the performance characteristics of growth and value funds — including manager skill. We found a switch to style indexes reduced industry- and style-factor contributions and made manager skill more apparent.
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Are Your Clients Ready for US Tax Day?
May 10, 2021 Raina Oberoi , Yuliya Plyakha Ferenc , Joseph Wickremasinghe , Paulina Serrano Learn MoreGiven the complexity of U.S. tax regulation, wealth advisers continue to grapple with how to build tax-efficient portfolios while balancing clients’ other objectives. We propose a rules-based way of doing so and analyze its benefits and trade-offs.
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Why Is Climate-Transition Risk High in High Yield?
May 6, 2021 Bruno Rauis , Juan Sampieri , Andy SparksESG Research , Fixed Income , Risk Management
Learn MoreInvestors increasingly focus on building greener portfolios. Some might expect bonds to be less exposed to climate-transition risk compared to equities, due to the seniority of bonds in the capital structure. But does that logic hold at the portfolio level?
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Whether constructing a fundamental factor model, a value strategy or a value index, valuation ratios need context. Time-series and cross-sectional approaches each have pros and cons. But combining the two may have presented a clearer picture.
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Bringing Value to the 21st Century
Apr 28, 2021 Arihant Jain , Mehdi Alighanbari , Saurabh Katiyar Learn MoreIn the second post in our series, we further probe value’s underperformance over the past decade and ask if the historic definition of value remains relevant. We specifically look at whether a company’s valuation can be enhanced by reflecting R&D investments.
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Modern Slavery: The Unseen Risks
Apr 26, 2021 Morgan EllisESG Research , Global Investing
Learn MoreModern slavery occurs all over the world and can impact virtually all industries. Meanwhile, regulations requiring more detailed reporting on potential supply-chain exposure is increasing. How can investors identify portfolio holdings most at risk?
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Factor Investing Held in High-Volatility/-Concentration Period
Apr 23, 2021 Abhishek Gupta , Ashish LodhFactor Indexes , Factors , Risk Management
Learn MoreU.S. equity markets have experienced increased volatility coupled with concentration in a handful of megacap companies. Has this hampered investors’ ability to capture factors effectively? Have stock-specific risks dominated factor indexes?
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Some ESG Funds Are Not Like the Others
Apr 19, 2021 Rumi MahmoodESG Research , Global Investing
Learn MoreESG funds’ holdings can vary significantly, depending on their objectives, methodologies and geographic exposures. We examined the 20 largest equity funds in our coverage universe.
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Could Investment Grade Be as Risky as High Yield?
Apr 16, 2021 András Bohák , Andras RokobFixed Income , Risk Management
Learn MoreDo high-yield and investment-grade bonds carry the same level of risk? For investors using common measures like value-at-risk models, IG- and HY-bond portfolios’ risk levels appear to have converged. But traditional models may miss important aspects of HY risk.
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Innovation Remix: Adding Thematics to Equity Programs
Apr 14, 2021 Raman Aylur Subramanian , Anil Rao , Subramanian AylurEquity Themes , Factor Indexes , Global Investing
Learn MoreHow can investors incorporate transformative, but volatile thematic investments while seeking to control for valuation and total and active risk? We examine three approaches that improved a portfolio’s “innovation profile” with modest changes to risk.
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Long-Horizon Risk: The Past 50 Years
Apr 13, 2021 Monika Szikszai , Thomas VerbrakenFixed Income , Risk Management
Learn MoreFor long-horizon investors that aim to ride out volatility, short-term risk measures may be insufficient. We used multiperiod stress testing to evaluate one- and five-year returns of hypothetical multi-asset-class portfolios using 50 years of history.
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Including Microcaps in Benchmark Indexes: Japan vs. US
Apr 7, 2021 Naoya NishimuraEquity Themes , Global Investing , Factor Investing
Learn MoreSelecting an equity benchmark may mean balancing market coverage and investability. For example, exhaustive coverage may include microcap stocks, with lower liquidity and investment capacity. But excluding them may reduce low-size-premium exposure.
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Factors in Focus: Value Springs into Action
Apr 6, 2021 Hitendra D Varsani , Waman VirgaonkarFactor Indexes , Factor Investing
Learn MoreValue has historically outperformed in economic recoveries. With the reopening of the global economy we examined value’s performance against other factors, and exposures from our adaptive multi-factor model at the end of Q1.
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Reopening Economies and the Resurgence in Value
Mar 31, 2021 Waman Virgaonkar , Hitendra D VarsaniFactor Indexes , Global Investing , Factor Investing
Learn MoreAfter 15 years of challenging performance, many have asked if value is still a valid investment strategy. But the reopening of the global economy following vaccination rollouts has reignited interest across stocks, sectors, countries and regions.
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Value-Performance Anxiety
Mar 23, 2021 Mehdi Alighanbari , Saurabh KatiyarGlobal Investing , Factor Investing
Learn MoreDespite a recent performance lift, many still ask whether the value factor is broken. We analyze the reasons behind its underperformance and start exploring the potential of updates to value definitions and approaches to value-portfolio construction.
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Considerations for Dedicated China Equity Allocations
Mar 18, 2021 Zhen Wei , Wei ZhenEmerging Markets , Global Investing
Learn MoreChina provides global equity investors a unique set of opportunities and challenges as they evaluate a potential dedicated investment program and how to approach asset allocation from policy configuration to portfolio implementation.
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鉴于中国进一步开放金融市场,一些投资者指定了一个专门计划来负责处理与中国相关的一系列投资机会。
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Managing the Risks of LIBOR Replacement
Mar 17, 2021 Greg Scheuer , Maks OksFixed Income , Risk Management , Global Investing
Learn MoreInvestors now have clarity on the process of transitioning away from LIBOR and falling back on replacement benchmark rates. We used stress tests to show that fallback modeling may be necessary to measure and manage the risks of LIBOR instruments.
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The Pace of Fast Change: Growth vs. Thematic Investing
Mar 16, 2021 Anil Rao , Stuart DooleFactor Indexes , Factors , Global Investing , Factor Investing
Learn MoreInvestors considering thematic investments to gain exposure to firms whose fortunes may not be captured by fundamental growth measures, may ask: What are the key opportunities – and challenges – that distinguish thematic from growth investing?
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Hedge funds held heavy, relatively illiquid short positions in crowded stocks before the January 2021 short squeeze. We created a risk factor that added explanatory power and may provide insights into potential short squeezes and other risks.
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Are Growth and Value Indexes Still in Style?
Mar 9, 2021 Guillermo Cano , Abhishek GuptaFactor Investing , Risk Management , Global Investing
Learn MoreGrowth and value indexes were created in the 1980s as finer tools than market-cap indexes to measure the performance of growth and value funds. Are style-specific indexes still a relevant choice to use as benchmarks for these funds?
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How Inflation Could Affect Multi-Asset-Class Portfolios
Mar 3, 2021 Thomas Verbraken , Daniel SzaboReal Estate Investing , Fixed Income , Global Investing , Integrated Risk Management
Learn MoreMarket participants are hotly debating whether U.S. monetary and fiscal policy may cause inflation. We consider four scenarios — reflation, disinflation, an overheated economy and stagflation — and their potential impact on multi-asset-class portfolios.
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How Have Stocks Responded to Changes in Climate Policy?
Mar 1, 2021 Guido Giese , Zoltán Nagy , Bruno RauisESG Research , Global Investing
Learn MoreTo what extent has climate risk been priced into equity markets? Is there a “brown” discount and a “green” premium? Has this shifted over time? How can we model such risks as the world moves toward net-zero targets? We examine the financial impact of climate transition risk on global equity markets.
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Factoring in ESG
Feb 26, 2021 Guillermo Cano , Simon MinovitskyESG Research , Factor Investing , Factors
Learn MoreHow much does ESG contribute to portfolio risk and return? We looked at whether ESG performance was influenced by other factors or helped explain returns as a factor in its own right, using the MSCI Global Equity Factor Model + ESG.
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Finding the Sentiment Hidden in Regulatory Filings
Feb 24, 2021 Vipul Jain , Kunal Jha Learn MoreUsing natural language processing techniques, we constructed a sentiment factor that quantifies changes in the tone and content of company filings, and may be an indicator of future risks facing a company.
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Climate Transition and Bonds: Risk or Opportunity?
Feb 23, 2021 Bruno Rauis , Juan Sampieri , Andy SparksESG Research , Fixed Income , Risk Management
Learn MoreThe transition to a low-carbon economy could significantly redirect the flow of investments toward greener companies and technologies that limit carbon emissions. We consider the potential risk — and opportunity — for bond investors.
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Currency-Risk Hedging in Real Estate Benchmarks
Feb 22, 2021 Bert Teuben , Lionel Ebener , Chirag GosarReal Estate Investing , Risk Management , Global Investing
Learn MoreGlobal real estate investors can expose themselves to currency risk. Using a hedged index, they may better align their benchmark and investment approach and ensure currency risk is accurately treated in allocation modeling and performance attribution.
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A New COVID-19 Regime for MBS?
Feb 17, 2021 Yihai Yu , Miklós VörösFixed Income , Integrated Risk Management
Learn MoreIn 2020, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities, low interest rates, mortgage-underwriting policy changes and technology advancements led to a historic refinance frenzy and posed an unprecedented challenge for MBS risk management.
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How does one identify or quantify a bubble? We propose a framework for assessing the “bubbliness” of stocks and portfolios, rooted in the idea that bubbles are driven by the same forces, and share characteristics with crowded trades.
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Cross-Currency Credit Spreads: Mind the Gap
Feb 8, 2021 Michael Hayes , Zach TokuraFixed Income , Risk Management
Learn MoreAn issuer’s credit spread should be consistent when measured in the USD- or EUR-denominated markets, because both are measuring the same credit risk. Yet divergence can occur as a result of liquidity or supply-demand imbalances, such as those in the COVID crisis.
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How Are High-ESG-Rated Bond Portfolios Distinct?
Feb 5, 2021 Hitendra D Varsani , Rohit Mendiratta , Guido GieseFixed Income , Risk Management , ESG Research
Learn MoreESG investing makes up an increasingly large footprint in equity portfolios, but ESG integration in bond portfolios is still in its early days. We examine the characteristics that make high-ESG-rated corporate-bond portfolios distinct.
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COVID Stimulus Helped Resilience of US ABS
Jan 29, 2021 Yini Yang , Joy ZhangRisk Management , Fixed Income
Learn MoreIssuance of U.S. asset-backed securities fell by a quarter in 2020 from the previous year, as credit tightened during the COVID-19 crisis. The performance of loans underpinning ABS proved resilient, however, as economic relief helped support consumers.
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Stress Testing Climate-Change Scenarios
Jan 28, 2021 David Lunsford , Thomas VerbrakenGlobal Investing , ESG Research
Learn MoreRegulators around the world are upping the ante on climate-related financial disclosures. How can investors stress test potential exposures to these changes in policy? We take a look within Europe.
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Carrying on Through a Crisis, with Factors
Jan 13, 2021 Andrew DeMond , Manuel RuedaFactor Investing , Risk Management , Fixed Income
Learn MoreFactors have long had a place in constructing equity portfolios, but investors increasingly use factors in sovereign and corporate bonds, commodities and currencies. Which non-equity factors have been the best performers coming out of recent crises, and why?
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Factors in Focus: Val-come Back! Shifting Factors as the Cycle Turns
Jan 6, 2021 Hitendra D Varsani , Waman Virgaonkar Learn MoreIn this two-year-anniversary edition of Factors in Focus, we reflect on the historical relationships between factor returns and macro cycles, which have provided useful information for investors looking to take an active stance on factor exposures based on their outlook.
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A Thematic Lens for Portfolios
Dec 17, 2020 Stuart Doole , Kumar Neeraj , Vishad Bhalodia Learn MoreWe show how MSCI Thematic Exposure relevance scores helped position growth funds, as an example, alongside thematic funds, and highlighted key megatrends that drove performance. A thematic lens can help analyze other categories and strategies as well.
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The Doctor Is Making House Calls: Capturing Exposure to Telehealth
Dec 16, 2020 Manuel Rueda , Gaurav TrivediFactor Investing , ESG Research
Learn MoreTelehealth has the potential to reduce inequalities in access to care as well as relieve strain on health systems. We tested an approach that combines natural-language processing and MSCI ESG Ratings screens.
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Kuwait’s Move from Frontier to Emerging Market
Dec 14, 2020 Saurabh Katiyar , Ashish Lodh Learn MoreKuwait’s reclassification from frontier to emerging market and inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index provides investors exposure to yet another Gulf Cooperation Council member, one that has worked to open its doors to foreign investors.
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Accounting for Revenue Sources Tells a Richer Story
Dec 11, 2020 Jean-Maurice LadureGlobal Investing , Emerging Markets , Economic Exposure
Learn MoreDespite North America’s outsized weighting in the MSCI ACWI Index, companies in the index generated only 30% of their global revenues there. We explore how examining revenue sources may help uncover opportunities of economic growth around the world.
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Private-infrastructure investments are often treated as comparable to relatively safe long-duration bonds with attractive yields, but this approach can mislead investors as they evaluate risk, yield and portfolio hedges.
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China Tech Investing: An Indexed Approach
Dec 2, 2020 Wei Xu , Kumar Neeraj , Devika Ghate Learn MoreChina’s emergence as a tech leader holds great potential. But its technology value chain isn’t limited to IT firms. Opportunity lies across sectors, from electric vehicles to medical devices. How does one effectively gain exposure?