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2022 Private-Asset Trends to Watch 

Real Estate Investing

Private-asset investors are waking up to the urgency of the climate crisis, while dealing with other long-term disruptive trends that accelerated during the pandemic. We may see a substantial reallocation of capital as investors respond to these challenges.

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Factors in Focus: Are Your Equity Styles Ahead of the Curve? 

Factor Investing

If economic expansion and higher inflation continue in 2022, interest rates could rise around the world. As investors re-evaluate equity portfolios, we look at factor-index performance in different U.S. interest-rate and yield-curve regimes.

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Real Estate’s Income Risk in the Wake of COVID-19 

Real Estate Investing

COVID-19 has weighed heavily on the financial positions of companies that hold leases for commercial real estate. Property investors can track the covenant quality of their tenants and translate it into a probability of default over the length of the lease.

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Credit Strategies During the COVID-19 Crisis 

Fixed Income , Risk Management

Short-term credit spreads widened to a greater extent than long-term spreads during the March 2020 COVID-19 crisis. As a result, many U.S. corporate-issuer spread curves flattened or even inverted. What were the implications for corporate-bond investors?

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COVID-19’s Uneven Impact on Office Vacancy 

Real Estate Investing , Global Investing

What was the precise impact of the COVID-19 crisis on office properties? While the overall vacancy rate at the end of 2020 was lower than the previous cycle’s peak, the percentage of fully leased office buildings reached an all-time low.

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Reopening Economies and the Resurgence in Value 

Factor Indexes , Global Investing , Factor Investing

After 15 years of challenging performance, many have asked if value is still a valid investment strategy. But the reopening of the global economy following vaccination rollouts has reignited interest across stocks, sectors, countries and regions.

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A New COVID-19 Regime for MBS? 

Fixed Income , Integrated Risk Management

In 2020, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities, low interest rates, mortgage-underwriting policy changes and technology advancements led to a historic refinance frenzy and posed an unprecedented challenge for MBS risk management.

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Cross-Currency Credit Spreads: Mind the Gap 

Fixed Income , Risk Management

An issuer’s credit spread should be consistent when measured in the USD- or EUR-denominated markets, because both are measuring the same credit risk. Yet divergence can occur as a result of liquidity or supply-demand imbalances, such as those in the COVID crisis.

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COVID Stimulus Helped Resilience of US ABS 

Risk Management , Fixed Income

Issuance of U.S. asset-backed securities fell by a quarter in 2020 from the previous year, as credit tightened during the COVID-19 crisis. The performance of loans underpinning ABS proved resilient, however, as economic relief helped support consumers.

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Carrying on Through a Crisis, with Factors 

Factor Investing , Risk Management , Fixed Income

Factors have long had a place in constructing equity portfolios, but investors increasingly use factors in sovereign and corporate bonds, commodities and currencies. Which non-equity factors have been the best performers coming out of recent crises, and why?

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2021 Real Estate Trends to Watch 

Real Estate Investing

COVID-19 has caused a severe and rapid economic contraction and accelerated secular changes already hitting parts of the real estate markets. Investors face a fundamental question: How will real estate evolve as a sector and asset class? Here are our 2021 real estate trends to watch.

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A Thematic Lens for Portfolios 

Global Investing

We show how MSCI Thematic Exposure relevance scores helped position growth funds, as an example, alongside thematic funds, and highlighted key megatrends that drove performance. A thematic lens can help analyze other categories and strategies as well.

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The Doctor Is Making House Calls: Capturing Exposure to Telehealth 

Factor Investing , ESG Research

Telehealth has the potential to reduce inequalities in access to care as well as relieve strain on health systems. We tested an approach that combines natural-language processing and MSCI ESG Ratings screens.

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Is ESG Investing a Price Bubble? Probably Not. 

ESG Research

Inflows into ESG funds have soared in recent years and months, in part motivated by outperformance since the COVID-19 pandemic erupted. But have these inflows become a self-fulfilling prophecy, creating an ESG bubble?

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Private-Infrastructure Risk: Tilting at Windmills 

Risk Management

Private-infrastructure investments are often treated as comparable to relatively safe long-duration bonds with attractive yields, but this approach can mislead investors as they evaluate risk, yield and portfolio hedges.

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2021 ESG Trends to Watch 

ESG Research

Climate. ESG bubbles. Disclosure. Social inequality. Biodiversity. The topics don’t get much bigger — or more systemic. Here’s our analysis of the five ESG trends that will matter most to companies and their investors in 2021.

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COVID-19 and Office Income: What Could Lie Ahead? 

Real Estate Investing

With new COVID-19 lockdowns and swaths of white-collar workers working from home, many office tenants are contemplating whether the future of work includes office space. This could have significant impact on office demand and income from leases.

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The CDS Market Stayed Healthy amid COVID 

Risk Management

Since the global financial crisis, many have expressed concern about the health and future of credit-default swaps. Could institutional investors find the liquidity they need to hedge credit risk in subsequent periods? We examine CDS liquidity during the COVID-19 crisis.

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Stress Testing Multiperiod Inflation Scenarios 

Fixed Income , Risk Management

Will inflation rear its ugly head in the U.S.? Although the outcome of the U.S. elections might have lowered inflation expectations, investors can prepare for scenarios where inflation goes up. In this stress test, we examine three scenarios for inflation over varying time horizons.

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Investor Reaction to US Elections and COVID-Vaccine Progress 

Factor Investing , Risk Management , ESG Research

To gauge investor expectations after Joe Biden was declared winner of the U.S. election and good news broke about COVID vaccines, we surveyed 151 U.S.-based financial advisers. We examine the advisers’ views on the next 12 months and markets’ reaction since Election Day.

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Did Size Matter for Small-Cap Outperformance? 

Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Factors

Good vaccine news on Nov. 9 drove unusual equity-index and factor returns, including in small caps. The MSCI USA Small Cap Index returned 3.03% that day vs. 0.82% for the MSCI USA Index. Was this due to the size factor, or was there a bigger story?

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Are Momentum’s Wings Finally Starting to Melt? 

Factor Investing , Factors

Positive vaccine news on Nov. 9 caused big moves in industry and style factors. Those hit hardest this year jumped, while previous high performers slumped. Did this mark new factors leadership and a long-awaited rotation from momentum to value?

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Was Infrastructure Solid During COVID-19? 

Real Estate Investing , Risk Management

Infrastructure investments have not been spared the effects of the pandemic. A closer look across investment types, subsectors and risk levels over time may provide useful perspective as private-capital firms and their investors manage through.

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Is US Equity Overvalued? A Macro View 

Equity Themes , Risk Management

Headed into what some see as “the second wave” of COVID-19, U.S. equity investors may ask: Is this a sustainable market recovery, or a bubble that may burst? We examine the question with our model for market-implied U.S. equity risk premium.

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Hertz So Good? 

Fixed Income , Risk Management

We look at the unusual bankruptcy of Hertz Global Holdings Inc. — whose equity rallied in early June, when holders of Hertz bonds were expecting losses as high as 90% in default — to discuss the importance and subtleties of firms’ capital structures.

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Corporate ESG Disclosure: A Health & Safety Case Study 

ESG Research

How good a job are corporations doing in disclosing ESG policies and data to investors and other stakeholders? We took an in-depth look at reporting of health & safety disclosures. Our findings confirmed some common assumptions and upended others.

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Bond Liquidity: How Bad Was COVID? 

Risk Management

Was bond liquidity worse during the COVID-19 outbreak or the 2008 global financial crisis? We analyzed transaction costs from the forced selling of USD 10 million of U.S. corporate bonds, throughout the two crises.

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Missed Rents’ Impact on Real Estate 

Real Estate Investing , Fixed Income

Some commercial tenants have stopped paying rent amid COVID-19. Without rental income, property funds are not able to pay distributions to shareholders and borrowers cannot service their debt. We analyzed property-fund data to assess the impact on investors.

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Alternative Views of Equity-Market Liquidity During COVID-19 

Emerging Markets , Global Investing , Risk Management

Institutional investors have typically used traded volume as a way to assess market liquidity. Adding alternative measures that gauge market impact and trading costs can provide a more comprehensive view for portfolio managers and traders.

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Understanding the Industry-Momentum Factor 

Factor Investing , Risk Management , Global Investing

When COVID-19 first swept through global equity markets, many factors exhibited unprecedented performance swings. How could institutional investors interpret the industry-momentum factor’s moves in the context of the underlying market dynamics?

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The Risk of Risk Limits 

Risk Management

In times of heightened volatility, risk limits can protect against equity-market drawdowns. While such measures can dampen portfolio losses, they may also have an impact on long-term returns, particularly in case of a sharp V-shaped market recovery.

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Did Bonds Deliver? Leveraging Fixed Income During the COVID Crisis 

Fixed Income , Risk Management

Investors may employ leverage with lower-risk asset classes such as bonds to seek higher risk and returns. We assessed the effects of leverage on the returns of three hypothetical multi-asset-class portfolios during the COVID-19 crisis.

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Corporate Bonds Through a Factor and ESG Lens 

ESG Research , Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Factors , Fixed Income , Risk Management

COVID-19 has had a profound impact on how companies manage cash flows and liquidity. Bond investors face the possibility of increased leverage, rating downgrades and defaults. Can factors and ESG metrics shed light on these risks?

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Measuring Firms’ Remote-Workforce Abilities 

Factor Investing , Factors

It’s clear that some companies were better positioned to take advantage of a remote work environment than others. We built a hypothetical “remote-operation capacity” factor to seek to measure the effect on different firms.

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Factors in Focus: How Trendy Is Your Style Factor? 

Factor Investing , Risk Management

As markets rallied worldwide, investors took on high-beta exposure and rotated away from stocks with lower risk. The latest edition of Factors in Focus explores the details.

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Surging Corporate-Bond Supply: Reason to Worry? 

Fixed Income , Risk Management

In the months since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, companies issued a large amount of corporate bonds. As a result of this surge, corporate debt has grown substantially — a burden that institutional credit investors may wish to monitor closely.

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Short Interest Factor Performance in Times of Crisis 

Factors , Factor Investing

Given recent short interest factor performance, we asked: What has been the relationship between this factor and large market drawdowns? Were there changes in short selling during COVID-19? Did short-selling bans affect short interest factor performance?

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COVID-19 and Real Estate: The Devil Is in the Dispersion 

Real Estate Investing , Risk Management

Many real estate markets were showing signs of a slowdown even before COVID-19’s negative impact on property portfolios. Has this correction been similar to previous ones? We looked at dispersion of returns, within and across real estate sectors, for the answer.

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Consumer ABS: Recovering from Coronavirus? 

Risk Management , Fixed Income

After the U.S. COVID-19 lockdown, new monthly remittance reports for asset-backed securities indicated performance deterioration and signaled potential challenges ahead. Meanwhile, in China, ABS showed signs of recovery.

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Equity-Market Dislocation and Index-Based Investing 

Emerging Markets , Global Investing

Market turbulence amid COVID-19 presented risks and opportunities. We explore how indexes , combined with the use of fundamental data, provided a wealth of information to help identify potential market dislocations.

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Outcome-Oriented Factor Investing with a ‘Barbell’ Approach 

Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Global Investing

Though relatively new to wealth investors, index-based factor investing has some similarity to a high-conviction, outcome-oriented approach. We explore combining the two when seeking outcomes such as equity growth, yield enhancement and risk mitigation.

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Building Better ESG Indexes: 30 Years On 

Global Investing , ESG Research

How ESG indexes have evolved over the past 30 years: A Q&A with Stuart Doole, head of new index development at MSCI, about his conversations with investors since the COVID19 crisis started, the growth of ESG investing and how MSCI Research uses AI and machine learning in developing its ESG indexes.

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Robust Selection Paid Dividends 

Global Investing

Dividend cuts following the COVID-19 slowdown led to approximately USD 194 billion of lost dividends between February and April 2020. An approach that looked beyond dividend-yield ranking would have avoided some affected companies, based on our analysis.

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Four COVID-19 Scenarios: What Might Happen Next? 

Fixed Income , Risk Management

Our latest COVID-19 stress test looks at four potential financial-market outcomes ranging from a swift V-shaped recovery to a pessimistic L-shaped scenario, in which outbreaks recur and lockdowns return well into 2021.

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Five lessons for investors from the COVID-19 crisis 

ESG Research , Factors , Global Investing

COVID-19 unleashed a torrent of sharp movements across global financial markets. We highlight five key lessons for investors regarding global investing, managing factors, active management, indexed investing and ESG investing.

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Real Estate Asset Selection Mattered — Especially in a Crisis 

Real Estate Investing

As real estate strategies become more complex and market disruption continues, attribution analysis may prove a valuable tool. We looked at asset selection’s role in driving portfolios’ relative returns during relatively calm and disruptive periods.

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Index Rebalancing During High Volatility: A Balancing Act 

Global Investing , Emerging Markets

Significant volatility during COVID-19 highlights a need for index reconstitution, but some may worry about trading costs and excess turnover. We investigate the balance between appropriate market representation and avoiding high index turnover.

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Consumer ABS Under Coronavirus in the US and China 

Emerging Markets , Fixed Income , Global Investing , Risk Management

Beyond COVID-19’s steep human toll, the pandemic’s disruption of economic life has led to widespread loss of income and impaired some borrowers’ ability to repay loans. What could the impact be for investors in consumer asset-backed securities in the U.S. and China?

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How Hedge Funds Navigated the Start of COVID-19 Volatility 

Factor Investing , Factors , Risk Management

How did hedge funds navigate the initial volatility amid COVID-19? Though holdings information is limited, and delayed, we gained insights into their reaction by examining the change in hedge-fund portfolios between the end of January and end of February.

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Credit in the COVID Crisis: Contagion, Valuation, Default 

Fixed Income , Risk Management

As the COVID-19 crisis unfolded, credit markets deteriorated under the stress of a sharply diminished economic outlook. We analyze three indicators of credit-market conditions: default risk, relative value and contagion risk.

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Was the Treasury Price Right? Yield Dispersion Amid COVID-19 

Fixed Income , Risk Management

Despite appearances, Treasury yield curves are statistically estimated using price data from hundreds of Treasurys. We compared recent yield dispersion — or the degree to which individual bond yields fall away from the curve — to historical levels.

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Using Derivatives to Manage Volatile Markets 

Emerging Markets , Global Investing , Risk Management

We’ve previously noted growth in derivatives contracts to manage emerging-markets exposure in normal and stressed times. Now, facing a real-world stress test, how did investors use these tools? How have implied volatilities and option premium changed?

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Hunting a COVID-19 factor 

Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Factors

Can we identify a COVID-19 factor and quantify companies’ exposure to it? We explored three ways to do so — from very simple to more complex methods.

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MSCI ESG Indexes during the coronavirus crisis 

ESG Research , Emerging Markets , Global Investing

The COVID-19 outbreak is the first real-world test since the 2008 global financial crisis of the resilience of companies with high MSCI ESG Ratings. We analyze the performance of four standard MSCI ESG Indexes over Q1 2020 and longer periods.

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新冠疫情期间的 MSCI ESG 指数 

ESG Research , Emerging Markets , Global Investing

在新冠疫情的恐慌抛售期间以及更长时期内，我们将四个全球 MSCI ESG 指数与其母指数进行了比较。

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US inflation: The market’s implied view 

Fixed Income , Risk Management

Dramatic declines in oil prices, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy and higher fiscal deficits may create a confusing outlook for U.S. inflation. We examine what the market is telling us about where inflation may be heading.

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How COVID-19 could impact private real estate values 

Real Estate Investing

Real estate has not historically been immune to growth shocks, but the impact of COVID-19 has been harder to establish than it has for public equities. Discounted-cash-flow scenarios may help investors understand the potential sensitivity of their portfolios.

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Resilient stocks during the dog days of March 

Factor Investing , Factor Indexes , Factors

While many stocks were in the red in mid-March, as COVID-19 and oil-market shocks took hold, some were “redder” than others. We examine global markets to better understand the characteristics of the more resilient stocks during this period.

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Can diversification help weather the coronavirus storm? 

Emerging Markets , Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Factors , Global Investing

Whether investors include a tactical approach or invest strategically for the long term, diversifying across factors, sectors and geographies has historically played an important role in portfolio construction. 

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Could coronavirus depress US housing prices? 

Risk Management , Fixed Income

The large economic shocks unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic could be comparable to or even exceed those of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). We used our models to assess whether these shocks could hurt U.S. housing prices as much as the GFC did.

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For target-date funds, hindsight was 40/60 

ESG Research , Factor Indexes , Fixed Income , Risk Management

Recent market volatility has been especially unkind to those closest to and early in retirement, as the sequence of returns matters for retirement income. Would low-volatility and ESG investments have benefited target date funds during volatile periods?

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What out-of-cycle write-downs may mean for real estate yields 

Real Estate Investing

As real estate investors seek to understand how the COVID-19 crisis could affect their portfolios, several large Australian pension funds recently wrote down their property portfolios by up to 10%. What could a 10% write-down imply for yields?

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Will coronavirus reduce emissions long term? 

ESG Research , Global Investing

Has COVID-19 affected carbon emissions? Using satellite imagery from NASA and the European Space Agency, we examined the empirical data so far to understand the potential impact, and if there may be a decline in global greenhouse-gas emissions in 2020.

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Factors in Focus: Risk sentiment and factor dynamics in a crisis 

Factor Indexes , Factor Investing , Factors , Fixed Income

We analyzed the market effects from COVID-19 and a Saudi Arabia/Russia oil-price war. We also examined – for the first time – credit factor performance. How did the quarter play out? What did our adaptive multi-factor model show as it ended?

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Could coronavirus lead to default contagion in CLOs? 

Risk Management , Fixed Income

The market for collateralized loan obligations is under severe stress during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used MSCI’s loan and CLO models to assess a sample CLO’s loan-default risk characteristics. Could a wave of defaults harm CLOs?

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The end of an era for the bond-equity relationship? 

Risk Management , Fixed Income

Stock and bond prices dropped together during the recent coronavirus sell-off, leading to fears that U.S. Treasurys were no longer the safe haven they had been in previous crises. Did it mark the end of an era of flight to quality?

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Managing risk-model uncertainty through a crisis 

Risk Management

The impact on risk policy has been similar across market crises, as investors consider how to use their models in the new regime. We describe adaptive modeling for internal and external risk policy, and long-view backtesting to support decision-making.

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‘Nowcasting’ private equity in the coronavirus crisis 

Risk Management

What may be happening to the value of portfolios of private assets during the COVID-19 crisis? We used MSCI’s private-equity model, which integrates data on private assets from our partner Burgiss, to try to shed some light.

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How could coronavirus impact credit markets? 

Risk Management , Fixed Income

While newspaper headlines are focused on volatile stock markets stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, credit markets are not immune. Our latest stress test asks, “What would it mean for portfolios if losses reached 2008 levels?”

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Asset allocation and index futures during market crises 

Emerging Markets , Global Investing , Risk Management

During market crises, institutional investors have employed derivatives contracts to hedge market risks or express views on certain performance/risk characteristics. We explore prior use of futures for exposure management and tactical asset allocation.

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Updating the MSCI Agency MBS model for the COVID-19 crisis 

Fixed Income , Risk Management

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely strained U.S. housing finance, distorting near-term prepayment speeds for mortgage-backed securities. With MBS in uncharted territory, we updated the MSCI Agency MBS Model to help investors during the crisis.

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How coronavirus could hurt Chinese consumer ABS 

Risk Management , Global Investing , Fixed Income , Emerging Markets

The slowing Chinese economy and trade uncertainty had already put strains on the performance of Chinese consumer asset-backed securities. The COVID-19 pandemic could further harm the performance of these securities. Investors may wish to gauge the risks.

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Real estate is about more than location during uncertain times 

Real Estate Investing

With real estate now occupying a greater slice of multi-asset-class portfolios, factors such as lease length, may be more systematic drivers of return than previously thought. 

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What scenarios has the US equity market priced in? 

Risk Management

With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. equity market turned sharply downward. We performed a reverse stress test considering various scenarios that potentially explain current valuations.

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Coronavirus and oil hit equities — how low can we go? 

Risk Management , Global Investing

We compare the market turmoil sparked by the coronavirus pandemic with levels of volatility, drawdown and recovery after 9/11 and the global financial crisis (the two other similarly severe economic and market shocks of the last 20 years).

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Coronavirus and a potential MBS convexity whipsaw 

Risk Management

Amid rising fears that the human toll of coronavirus will have a significant impact on the global economy, investors have sought safety in Treasurys and driven yields to all-time lows. This rate rally has posed a hedging challenge for investors in mortgage-backed securities.

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The coronavirus market impact spreads globally 

Factor Investing , Global Investing

Fear of a coronavirus pandemic and ensuing economic impacts caused sharp drops in global markets after an initially mild response. We look at recent performance from a factor perspective and how quickly factor returns and volatility reverted in past crises.

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A coronavirus stress test for global markets 

Fixed Income , Global Investing , Risk Management

After the coronavirus spread to multiple continents, markets recorded the worst week since the crisis. How much further could markets drop if epidemic turns into pandemic? Our stress test indicates room for further losses.

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The coronavirus epidemic: Implications for markets 

Economic Exposure , Emerging Markets , Factor Investing , Fixed Income , Global Investing , Risk Management

The toll from the coronavirus has been felt throughout societies, leading to repercussions on the global economy and financial markets. We examine investor impact through markets’ economic exposures to China and factors and by stress testing portfolios.